While polls show Harris narrowly leading, Trump’s momentum and attacks on Harris, alongside economic concerns, keep the outcome unpredictable
The upcoming election for the White House is of immense significance, as it will determine the next tenant of the White House and shape the future of the United States. Whether America will get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term is a debate going on among not only the politicians but also the public. A week before the November 5 presidential polls, election fever hit the country hard. However, there is a possibility that knowing the final result may take a few more dates. Narrow victories in a handful of swing states will likely determine who gets the top job. Polls and prediction markets are signalling a Republican sweep in the election.
As the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, and the Democrat nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, wrap up their campaigns, the potential impact of this election on the future of the United States cannot be overstated.
It is no surprise that the campaign has been not only highly negative but also personal, with Trump attacking his rival, hitting her below the belt and calling her “dumb.” While the reports claim that the fight is very tight, with Trump leading now and Kamala making up her lead, the suspense will continue for a few more days, even after the election date. The Electoral College is the system that decides presidential elections: A candidate must secure at least 270 votes – allocated by state based on the outcome of their respective vote – to win the White House. Although certification sabotage has not yet resulted in such an extensive delay, many attempts have been made before. County election boards generally have no legal authority to investigate any allegations of fraud or irregularities.
Tight races in crucial battleground states in 2020 and an increase in mail-in voting amid the COVID pandemic saw prolonged vote counts.That helped fuel unfounded claims of election malfeasance pushed by Trump and his allies. State election law provides other checks and safeguards through which suspected irregularities can be adjudicated. These mechanisms are designed to resolve disputes. Extended delays in county-level certification could run against deadlines for certifying statewide results. According to the Associated Press, the winner will likely not be projected for days. However, states and the whole election results are typically “called” long before final votes are counted. In 2020, President Joe Biden won. The result was called for four days after November 3, when Pennsylvania’s result was confirmed.
The state gave Biden 20 electoral college votes, taking over the 270 required to win. In 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded to Trump the morning after the election. With the presidential contest in the final countdown and Harris and Trump maligning the opponent, the vice president has called Trump dangerous. Harris insists she’s doing both — establishing a contrast with Trump and laying out her agenda on the economy, immigration and more. She says “It’s either Donald Trump in there, stewing over his enemies list, or me working for you, checking off my to-do list.” Trump is relentless in attacking Harris, sometimes in crude terms. His core strategy has been to tie Harris to voters’ frustrations with the Biden administration.
According to the latest reports, Harris leads Trump by four points, 51 per cent-47 per cent, in an ABC/Ipsos of likely voters released Sunday. This is up slightly from her 50 per cent-48 per cent edge in early October. Meanwhile, a CBS /You govt survey out Sunday shows Harris up 50 per cent-49 per cent, a shift from the vice president’s 51per cent-48 per cent lead in mid-October. According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Trump is favoured to win 54 times out of 100, compared to 46 for Harris.
As for the campaign spending, Harris routed Trump in fundraising for their official campaigns in September by pulling in $222 million compared to the Republican’s $63 million. Those numbers are down from the same period in 2020 when Biden raised $281 million and Trump raised $81 million.
Harris was able to spend a lot on TV ads. According to the Wesleyan Media Project, the Harris campaign has also dramatically outspent Trump in digital advertising and dominated cable and radio advertising advertising, which tracks campaign advertising spending.
The economy and inflation remain prominent concerns, with 90 per cent and 85 per cent of registered voters calling them highly important in their votes, respectively. Harris’ campaign insists she’s doing both — establishing a contrast with Trump and laying out her agenda on the economy, immigration and more. As she said in Georgia earlier this week: “It’s either Donald Trump in there, stewing over his enemies list, or me working for you, checking off my to-do list.”The economy and inflation remain prominent concerns, with 90 per cent and 85 per cent of registered voters calling these highly important in their vote.
The problem for Kamala Harris is that she is a woman of Asian descent. Despite being a highly developed country, people are shying away from electing a woman. Hillary Clinton tried hard, but she could not win the presidency. Let us see if Kamala is successful.
(The writer is a popular columnist, currently in the US; views are personal)
