This electoral battle is shaping up to be a multi-party contest, primarily between the ruling BJP-led NDA and the INDIA bloc

Who will win the 2024 Lok Sabha polls? The election scene has become clear after the Chief Election Commissioner announced the poll schedule last week. They will begin next month and end on June 4, when the results will be announced.

It will be a multi-party contest, with the ruling BJP-led NDA alliance and the opposition coalition of the INDIA bloc being the primary contenders. Meanwhile, alliances are being built and major parties have announced the candidates. Party hopping and secret deals are also going on. Prime Minister Modi aims to perform a hat trick. Currently, it is a one-horse race, with the BJP dominating and the opposition parties trailing behind.

The Opposition INDIA coalition comprises 26 parties. They have formed a pre-poll alliance to challenge the BJP. It aims to field a single opposition candidate against the BJP in the upcoming elections. The Opposition suffered two consecutive defeats in 2014 and 2019, significantly damaging its image. It needs to connect with voters, including millennials.

Congress, leading the Opposition, is a 138-year secular party that used to represent marginalised groups like SCs, STs, OBCs and Muslims. It has been weakened since the eighties, with the rise of regional satraps and today, it is a mere shadow of its former strength. It lacks leadership.

After the 2014 and 2019 defeats, Congress now claims it is committed to social justice and empowering India’s poor, oppressed, Dalits, farmers, youth and women with its five guarantees: Yuva Nyay, Bhagidaari Nyay, Naari Nyay, Kisan Nyay and Shramik Nyay.

The Opposition mainly aims to challenge Modi by consolidating anti-BJP votes and offering incentives. This strategy worked for Congress in recent Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana Assembly polls, which Congress won. Congress hopes to gain from the BJP’s anti-incumbency buffering sops and freebies. They also highlight Rahul Gandhi’s recent Bharat Jodo Yatras, which was meant to connect with the people.

To succeed, Congress must raise bread-and-butter issues such as inflation, joblessness and social discord to engage with young voters who play a decisive role in elections. They must show an alternate strategy to appeal to them.

Simultaneously, some powerful chief ministers of state-level parties dominate their states, making it a tough fight for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in these areas.

2019, the BJP and its allies secured only 45 per cent of the votes. The remaining 55 per cent were up for grabs for the INDIA bloc. Although no national leader matches Modi’s popularity, some influential regional leaders can sway voters in their respective regions. This is particularly true for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. The biggest challenge for the coalition is to project a single leader against Modi. Unfortunately, there is an ego clash among the coalition partners, which makes it difficult to agree on someone.

Secondly, the BJP boasts a strong organisation with immense financial and political power. The Opposition doesn’t seem to have a solid and compelling storyline, except for its commitment to safeguarding the Constitution and democratic values. However, voters are more concerned about basic needs such as food, clothing and shelter. For instance, Sonia Gandhi’s Aam Admi slogan in 2004 resonated well with the masses. Low-income people generally live paycheck to paycheck and may not relate to abstract political concepts.

The Congress Party is still clinging to its glorious past and failing to acknowledge the current scene. As the second-largest Party, Congress automatically expects to lead the coalition. It has been losing its leaders to the BJP and a steady flow of these leaders demoralises the Party. The Opposition needs a solid counter to the BJP’s propaganda and religious narrative. The BJP has grown since 1980; today, it is the biggest Party in India. It has a strong organisation with unlimited money power.

The Party seeks votes in the name of the Prime Minister. The BJP has a better chance of winning this time. The BJP’s lucky mascot is Modi. His supporters consider him a doer due to the implementation of various measures. These include the Triple Talaq, CAA, revocation of Article 356 in Jammu and Kashmir and the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. The BJP highlights its achievements in the last decade and various welfare initiatives to attract voters. The continuity has helped Modi achieve his agenda. Modi has gained international recognition over the past ten years and ensured India’s position at the high table, which excites his supporters.

On the negative side, the Opposition claims that the Modi Government has been targeting Opposition leaders and harassing them with Government probe agencies. The BJP poaches on other parties, lawmakers, and leaders. It has absorbed many second-rung leaders who chose to find better prospects in the saffron Party.

With both sides raising their pitch, the 2024 elections will see a no-holds-bar negative campaign, as this will decide the future of the Opposition and the aggressive BJP. Modi’s secret to success is a divided opposition. As long as this continues, Modi will continue to win. The Opposition must chant the mantra of unity to win or even improve.

(The writer is a popular columnist; views are personal)