The voters of Karnataka have given an unprecedented mandate to the Congress in the Assembly elections held on May 10 while rejecting the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The anti incumbency wave against the ruling -BJP in Karnataka and the internal dissent in the State-unit of the party due to ticket denial could be considered as a key twin factors for the bad poll-performance of the BJP.
On the other hand, four factors such as the unity of the leaders in the State-unit, welfaristic poll manifesto, all-inclusive caste and religion social agenda and good election management of the Congress are considered as the reasons behind the historical poll success of the party in the State.
The Congress is all set to form a stable Government in Karnataka as this time. While it is a State election phenomenon, political analysts find a few national factors influencing the local election and expect the impact of the Assembly poll to spread to the national political eco system.
The national factors that might have worked against the BJP in the Karnataka election are the Central Government’s silence over the women- wrestlers' strike at Delhi, the statements of the former Governor Satyapal Malik against the Union Government, the sudden removal of former Congress MP Rahul Gandhi from his Government residence, the Adani row, excess use of Hindutwa political narrative in TV channels and in polls, BJP’s overuse of the Prime Minister as star campaigner during the Statevelections and breaking of the elected State Governments through Operation Kamal by the BJP among others. The BJP shall be forced to re-think on these aspects.
The effect of the Karnataka Assembly election shall also go beyond Karnataka. It is likely to favour the Congress in the forthcoming Assembly elections in Chhatisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, to be held by end of 2023. It shall also boost the morale of the anti-BJP –opposition efforts at the national level which consists of the Congress and the regional parties. The non-NDA regional parties that advocate for the formation of an anti-BJP-opposition front without the Congress, shall have to quit their political position. They have to either join the Congress-led opposition for the forthcoming Parliament poll or choose to follow the equi-distance path like the BJD.
Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim went to the Assembly poll along with 2019 general election where the BJP/its coalition’s victory was limited to Sikkim and Arunachal. After 2019 general election, Assembly polls were conducted in the States of Harayana, Maharastra, Jharkhand, Delhi, Bihar, Assam, Kerala, Puduchery, West Bengal, Tamilnadu, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka. BJP/its coalitions formed Government in Haryana, Bihar, Assam, Puducherry, UP, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and Gujarat only. Bihar later went to JDU-RJD-Congress alliance and Maharastra went to BJP-Sena( Shinde) alliance.
Before 2024 general elections, Assembly polls to Mizoram, Chhatisgarh, MP, Rajasthan and Telengana are to be conducted. BJP’s exit from Karnataka shall be its leg puller in Telengana. Mizoram might go to the BJP. But if the Congress succeeds in managing party’s factionalism in Rajasthan, then the Karnakata victory shall enable it to win Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan.If this happens the BJP’s presence shall be sqeezed considerably by April-2024 general election, affecting its Lok Sabha seats.
While the disastrous fall of BJP in Karnataka Assembly election might be a tell-tale sign of the beginning of electoral weakness the BJP in the country, the revival of the Congress looks imminent. If one looks back at 2019-2022 period, the Congress was in a miserable condition in the country, having lost power at the Centre for the second consecutive time, facing internal revolt and defection of its leaders to the BJP, facing criticism of “familism” in the party and so on. Today, Congress has succeeded in reviving its strength in all the fronts. The party has elected a Dalit leader as its national president and has become vocal in professing its secular ideology as an alternative to BJP’s Hindutwa ideology.
The next step for the Congress is to declare openly its economic reforms policy for the country in line with its talk against crony capitalism, big corporatisation, privatisation of public assets, loot of banks through loans and secret political funding through electoral bonds and so on. Unless the Congress offers an alternative economic plan for the country, it may not be able to give a tough fight to the BJP at the Centre.
