Electoral success of the Congress in Telangana is the key issue which has emerged as bone of contention in seat sharing between the Samajwadi Party and Congress in Uttar Pradesh.

After electoral success in Karnataka and Telangana, the Congress, backed by the en bloc support of the Muslim community, is adopting hard bargaining tactics for seat sharing with the Samajwadi Party.

UP Jodo Yatra commencing from Saharanpur on December 20, organised by the Congress will pass through districts with significant Muslim population and conclude at Naimisharanya.

In poll results announced on December 3, the Congress lost Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and wrested power in Telangana from the Bharat Rashtra Samiti.

In the INDIAN bloc, there are little or no issues in seat sharing in states where the Congress is locked in a direct fight with the Bharatiya Janata Party. However, the situation in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bengal is radically different, where regional parties are dominant partners.

In both Karnataka and Telangana, the regional parties Janata Dal (Secular) and Bharat Rashtra Samiti, were the main losers as the majority of Muslim votes shifted towards the Congress.

“The success of the Congress in Karnataka and Telangana, attributed to the shifting of Muslim votes to the grand old party, haunts the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and Mamata Banerjee in Bengal. This has compelled Mamata Banerjee to initiate talks with the Left Front. Earlier, she was adamant against having any truck with Left parties, and now she is engaging with her arch-rival for fear of the division of Muslim votes,” said a political analyst.

“The Muslims with the poll results of Karnataka and Telangana have sent a clear message that only Congress was capable of fighting the BJP in general elections and regional parties can not deliver on this front,” he said.

He further added that if both the parties failed to reach an amicable settlement, then it would immensely benefit the BJP in UP and the same would happen in West Bengal.

To counter the pressure mounted by the Congress, Akhilesh Yadav is maintaining a brave front, constantly underlining the Congress’ rout in three Hindi heartland states.

“The debacle of the Congress has demolished its ego, and it can no longer play the role of a big brother. It has to give regional parties in various states their due share of seats,” said Akhilesh Yadav on Monday.

However, if the electoral/political compulsions of the Samajwadi Party are analysed in the context of the electoral success of the Congress in Karnataka and Telangana, the Samajwadi Party has few options to follow the dictates of the Congress for seat sharing in Uttar Pradesh.

Congress is insisting on minimum 25 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress claim is based on 2009 Lok Sabha elections when it had won 22 seats. The Muslim vote from Faizabad to Moradabad had shifted towards Congress as the Samajwadi Party had then forged alliance with the former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh, an accused in the Babri Masjid demolition case.

The bluff and bluster of Akhilesh, along with his humiliation by the former Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath, has left the Samajwadi Party with no option but to strike a deal with the Congress. This is crucial for retaining its Muslim vote bank and securing its electoral prospects in the 2027 UP Assembly elections.