The global fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty could provide the much-needed breakthrough and ensure transparent and fair means to stop climate breakdown
The recently concluded COP28 event in Dubai, UAE on 12th December 2023 was a much-anticipated event for the global environmental community which hoped that concrete and meaningful environmental conservation measures would be the dividends of the event.
But in reality, the ground situation is different and was captured effectively in the opinion of The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board, who dismissed the decisions taken at the conference as “phony climate promises” that merely created the illusion of progress. The COP28’s 21-page Global Stocktake document with 195 nations as signatories seems like noteworthy progress as it finally acknowledges that countries need to “transition away” from fossil fuels. However, the document is riddled with loopholes. Boiled down into three words, it says, essentially, “We will try.” A new approach is urgently needed which ensures that the majority of fossil fuel reserves remain in the ground. Unless this is done on a priority basis the limiting of global temperatures to no more than 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels will be impossible. In a special report the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) advised carbon emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 to hold global temperature rise below 1.5C. This will help avoid extreme climate events such as severe storms, floods, droughts, heat, and wildfires.
A recent analysis by think-tank Carbon Tracker suggests that even to keep warming below 2C, 80% of current coal, oil and gas reserves need to be left untouched. The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation(FFNP) Treaty is a radical measure that can help keep fossil fuels untouched. FFNP is an international initiative on the lines of the "Treaty on the non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons" (NPT) that came into force over five decades ago. The FFNP idea born in 2015 currently does not have many takers and quite understandably so as it requires nations to sign and commit to non-usage of fossil fuels. Even though FFNP gained momentum here on the sidelines of the Dubai COP28 many countries still do not endorse the initiative of phasing out of fossil fuels.
Given its weak representation, FFNP needs more backing and encouragement from the global community which must spearhead a push to secure a mandate to negotiate a new international mechanism to manage fossil fuels phase-out and finance a just and equitable global transition away from oil, gas and coal. Any more time must not be wasted in implementing FFNP because the global demand for coal, oil and gas is growing, with fossil fuels accounting for 81% of energy use. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that total fossil fuel use will rise. The FFNP must be acted upon by establishing 3 pillars of commitment. Firstly, all nations must agree not to exploit new reserves. Secondly, all signatory nations must agree to a planned decline of existing fossil fuel infrastructure. Thirdly, enable the financing of low-carbon alternatives through a global transition fund. As a first step towards this direction, all member nations could start with an assessment of existing reserves, as well as agreement on the principles for the sequencing of production phase-down targets across countries and fuel types, to align fossil fuel use with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C warming threshold. Commitments to phase out fossil fuels in the form of national targets and timetables could be sequenced reflecting the country's current emissions, historical contributions and capacity to transition to alternative energy sources.
The solution to holding down runaway global temperatures lies in implementing bold measures like FFNP. The global fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty could provide the much-needed breakthrough and ensure transparent and fair means to stop climate breakdown. This is the need of the hour.
(The writer is a policy analyst, views are personal)
