The shifting sands of geopolitics are leading to the arms race
New data emerging from SIPRI (Stockholm International peace research institute, has confirmed that the world is going through an arms race. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s aggressive military spending have meant that the world defence expenditure recorded a new high in 2022. While the US remained at the top spending nearly $880 billion, closely followed by China at nearly $292 billion, India also recorded a modest 6% increase in its military spending on a year-on-year basis. Surprisingly, several so far dormant, peace-loving, European countries such as Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, and Poland saw sharp increases in their military spending, as a direct response to the war in their neighbourhood. The data points to a reversal of geo-strategic policies by several nations (especially in Europe), as they increasingly feel the need to make their borders more secure, against any unilateral military aggressor. It also directly leads to eating away the lunch of several other global concerns such as climate change, which need to be tackled immediately to arrest the harm that has already been inflicted. It also leads nations to reorient with trusted allies and friends at a global scale.
This week also saw the first Shanghai Cooperation Organisation defence ministers’ meeting in New Delhi. Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu, as well as Chinese defence minister LiShangfu, made a rare appearance in Delhi. This was the first time the Chinese defence minister visited India, after the mischievous Galwan, medieval-era scuffle which led to both countries losing nearly two dozen soldiers. In the run-up to the defence ministers’ meeting top-level military leaders met on the Chinese side of the border, however, no breakthrough was achieved. The Ministry of external affairs in a statement released after the meeting stated “The two sides had a frank and in-depth discussion on the resolution of the relevant issues along the LAC in the Western Sector so as to restore peace and tranquillity in the border areas, which will enable progress in bilateral relations. In line with the guidance provided by the State Leaders and further to the meeting between the two Foreign Ministers in March 2023, they had an exchange of views in a candid manner. In the interim, the two sides agreed to maintain security and stability on the ground in the Western Sector. They agreed to stay in close contact and maintain dialogue through military and diplomatic channels and work out a mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues.
India is pushing for immediate Chinese troop withdrawal in the Depsang Bulge area and the Charding Ninglung Nullah, following which troops from both sides can be disengaged. Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh met his Chinese counterpart a day ahead of the SCO defence ministers meeting and re emphasised Indian concerns, as well as the need to return to the April 2020 status, which was unilaterally disrupted by China.
The defence minister also met his Russian counterpart, a first visit by Mr Sergei Shoigu, since Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. India needs both Russia and China to be able to find common grounds for a secure, safe , transparent Central Asia, and later the Indo-Pacific.
India has so far maintained warm relations with Russia, despite facing the heat from Europe and the US on bilateral ties. The sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia as punishment for invading Ukraine are limiting its ability to manufacture weapons and making it more isolated on the global stage. Meanwhile, China with whom India’s relations have fallen to all-time lows has grown significantly closer to Russia. The recently concluded state visit of Chinese premier Xi Jinping to Moscow reaffirmed the special friendship. India could try to persuade China by influencing Russia, however, the current situation in Russia may prevent it from pushing China harder.
(The writer is a policy analyst. The views expressed are personal.)
