The outcome of today’s INDIA bloc meeting may redefine strategies and influence the 2024 elections

In the dynamic realm of Indian politics, the Opposition alliance meeting today is significant as it involves the critical issue of sharing seats for the 2024 elections. It comes shortly after the Opposition conceded the crucial States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to the BJP in Assembly elections. The seat-sharing formula could not be formalised before these Assembly elections, resulting in the BJP's sweep, so today's meeting of the INDIA bloc with the tagline “Mae nahin, hum” (“We, not me”) could be a turning point in the Opposition’s plan for 2024. As a follow-up, the Congress Working Committee would meet on December 21 to finalise its campaign for the Lok Sabha elections. There is speculation that the meeting, summoned by party president Mallikarjun Kharge, would also chalk out a plan for Rahul Gandhi’s next edition of Bharat Jodo Yatra and ratify any seat-sharing formula agreed upon in the INDIA bloc meeting. It is expected to shape the course of political alliances and spell out strategies. This is perhaps the last chance for the bloc to show solidarity for its common cause since seat sharing is a delicate and intricate process for maximising the constituents' chances of electoral success. The outcome will impact not only the alliance but also play a pivotal role in determining the collective strength of the Opposition. If the Opposition manages to finalise a mutually agreeable seat-sharing formula, it could strengthen the bonds within the coalition.

Interestingly, the Congress' defeat in the recent Assembly elections comes as a blessing in disguise for INDIA as the party is likely to be more accommodative of the others now. Having said that, the seat-sharing exercise is not going to be easy, given the number of parties involved and their complex cross-cutting interests. Besides, a seat sharing agreement per se does not guarantee an electoral win as votes may or may not get transferred in favour of the common candidate. However, a united front is the minimum necessity for challenging the BJP, and a harmonious distribution of seats may foster trust and cooperation among the Opposition partners. On the other hand, the failure to reach a consensus might lead to fragmentation within the Opposition ranks; infighting and lack of unity could undermine its electoral prospects, providing the ruling party with a distinct advantage. The Opposition meeting could also witness the emergence of new, smaller alliances or realignments as parties explore alternative partnerships. In a scenario where the main alliance break down, some parties may opt to form new alliances based on shared ideologies or regional considerations, reshaping the political equations in unforeseen ways. What exactly holds for INDIA bloc only time will tell but one thing is for sure, this is the last shot they have got to forge a united front; if INDIA leaders fail to set aside their personal interests, they will not be true to their opposition dharma.