The success of the current offensive in Myanmar shows once again that the ruling junta is doomed
The continuing offensive by an alliance of resistance groups, that began on the morning of October 27, has panicked Myanmar’s ruling junta. This is clear from a report in The Global New Light of Myanmar, the junta’s media voice, which said that Acting President Mynt Swe recently told Myanmar’s Defence Council that the country was in a critical condition, and could be torn apart if the military did not act effectively against the groups that carried out the attacks, which were a part of the offensive.
The offensive has been launched by The Three Brotherhood Alliance (henceforth Brotherhood Alliance) comprising the ethnic Rakhine armed group, the Arakan Army (AA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the armed wing of the Palaung (the Burmese name for the Ta’ang ethnic minority group) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) active in the Kokang Special Region of northern Shan State.
It has made significant gains, seizing the military’s bases and towns across northern Shan, Kachin and Rakhine states and the upper reaches of Sagaing and Mandalay regions. According to the website, The Irrawaddy, several resistance organisations including the People’s Defence Force (PDF), the armed wing of the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), and one of the country’s most powerful armed ethnic organisations, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), are coordinating with the Brotherhood Alliance’s operation.
The Brotherhood Alliance has captured over 224 junta bases and seven towns across northern Shan State, including some strategic centres on key Myanmar-China trade routes. It and allied resistance forces fully control Chin Shwe Haw, a trade hub on the Chinese border, and another strategic town, Hseni, where the Lashio-Muse and Lashio-Chin Shwe Haw trade routes converge, as well as another trade gate—Kyin San Kyawt on the China border in Muse Township. The Chin National Army and other Chin resistance groups have captured Reh Khaw Da in Fala town on the India border. Rikhawadar and Laidenpi in Chin State and Khampat in the Sagaing region, are also in the hands of the Junta’s opponents.
In coordination with Operation 1027, the Karenni Army, the Karenni National People’s Liberation Front (KNPLF), the KNDF, and the PDF, had jointly launched another offensive, Operation 11.11, on November 11, seizing more than 20 junta bases and outposts in Kayah State’s Loikaw and Demoso townships as well as the nearby Pekon township in southern Shan State.
They have also captured the strategically important Kunlong township on the Lashio-Chin Shwe Haw Road that is considered be the gateway to the Kokang region. The resistance groups have also blocked strategic arteries like the Mandalay-Lashio-Muse and the Mandalay-Lashio-Chin Shwe Haw roads, which pass through Shan State. They also control several border trade routes with China.
The military, which should be called Sit-Tat and not Tatmadaw, had been on the backfoot even before the current offensive began. It was bedevilled by low morale and desertions. Ye Myo Hein said in a piece datelined May 4, 2023, and featured by the United States Institute for Peace, “the military currently has about 150,000 personnel. Roughly 70,000 are combat soldiers. At least 21,000 service members have been lost through casualties, desertion and defection since the coup. At this troop level, the Sit-Tat is barely able to sustain itself as a fighting force, much less a government.” Things have been made worse by discord within. Several three-stars generals have been removed. Many younger officers are unhappy as they recognise that almost the entire country is against them.
The number of casualties has increased since Ye Myo Hein’s piece came out, and particularly since the current offensive began. According to reports, hundreds of junta soldiers have been killed. The Junta does not give out credible figures. The fact that the commander of the 99th Light Infantry Division, Col. Aung Kyaw Lwin has been killed—the first divisional commander to have met this fate since the 2021 coup--is, however, significant; so is the recent death of Major Soe Win Hitke, the second-in-command at the Sit-Tat’s Lailenpi base, in a drone attack.
The odds are now rapidly increasing against the Junta. The latter doubtless has tanks and other armoured vehicles, artillery and air force. Tanks and armoured vehicles are very difficult to deploy in the areas dominated by the ethnic forces. With densely forested mountainous terrains, deep gorges and steep climbs, these are ideal for staging ambushes. Moreover, air-strikes and artillery do not win wars, even when backed by heavily armed and trained infantry. Otherwise, the United States would have won hands down in Vietnam.
The junta will land in history’s dustbin--not tomorrow but sooner than many think. India must seriously consider its options. It has to contain China’s influence in Myanmar when Beijing has maintained close contact with the ethnic fighters, with some even suspecting that the offensive had its nod.
Second, India has its security concerns in its north-eastern parts, which is primarily why it has maintained friendly ties with the Junta. With areas in Myanmar adjoining India’s borders increasingly dominated by the ethnic resistance groups, India must consider cooperating closely with the NUG and establishing links with the ethnic forces.
(The author is Consulting Editor, The Pioneer. The views expressed are personal)
