Ironically, all Military takeovers in Pakistan entailed the Pakistani Generals deposing the politicians who were responsible for ‘selecting’ them
The reserved and affluent former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi (2017-18), is an 8-time member of the National Assembly with a deep history with the proverbial ‘establishment’ (Pakistan Military). He electorally represents the garrison townships of Rawalpindi (hosting the general HeadQuarters) and is himself the son of a decorated Air Force Veteran, Commodore Khaqan Abbasi, who was part of General Zia-ul-Haq’s cabinet. Shahid’s father-in-law, General Muhammad Riaz Abbasi, was Director General of the shadowy Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the dark ages of Zia’s reign. Later, Shahid was to join the conservative Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI), floated by the egregious, Lt General Hamid Gul. His own understanding of the ‘establishment’ was nuanced by his subsequent appointment as the Federal Parliamentary Secretary for Defence.
Shahid later joined PML-N and became Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly on Defence. Larger politics of the day saw him get co-accused with Nawaz Sharif for conspiring to kill General Pervez Musharraf in the hijacking case, only to go behind bars for two years. However, he was to get his most definitive exposure of the ‘establishments’ ways as the Prime Minister, after Nawaz Sharif was debarred from holding office, in a move largely seen under pressure by the ‘establishment’.
Recently, Shahid Abbasi raised some pertinent concerns, as he forewarned that the ensuing crisis in Pakistan was deep enough to lead to a possible military takeover. He presciently alluded to the hopeless crisis of discredited institutions, irreconcilable politicians and dire economic morass that could legitimise a Military takeover to ‘avoid’ inevitable anarchy. Shahid warned, “Pakistan has had many long periods of martial law in very similar situations” and added, “In fact, I would say Pakistan has never witnessed a [more] severe economic and political situation before. In much less severe circumstances, the military has taken over”. In a sarcastic pun on the typical opening line used by Generals after taking over, Shahid warned of having to hear, “merey aziz hum watno” (literally, My dear fellow citizens), in the post-coup address!
The current Pakistani Army Chief, General Asim Muneer, has not shown any such inclination so far – but neither had Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq or Pervez Musharraf, initially. That said, General Asim Muneer would be more than familiar with the murky ways of the ‘establishment’ by being the only Pakistani Chief who has headed both the Military Intelligence (MI), as also the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). His elevation was part of a political process that entailed him being ‘retained’ and then ‘appointed’ (he was set to retire a few days before his predecessor, General Qamar Bajwa was to hang his boots). Besides, Asim Muneer had his own personal run-in and wounded history with Imran Khan that saw him get booted out as the Director General of ISI, after Muneer had raised concerns about Imran Khan’s wife, earlier. Therefore, with acutely failing perceptions of the existing coalition government and his own discomfort in ‘re-selecting’ Imran Khan is highly unlikely.
This leaves him with the only possible option of stepping in. Other side players (though still relevant) in the current scenario like the recently retired General Qamar Bajwa and the intelligentsia would not be too averse to that scenario given the necessity of ‘hard decisions’ i.e., on economy and terror management.
All three previous Military takeovers i.e., Ayub Khan (1958-69), Zia-ul-Haq (1978-88) and Pervez Musharraf (1999-2008) entailed the Pakistani Generals deposing the politicians who were responsible for ‘selecting’ them. Ayub ousted President Iskander Mirza (after Generals loyal to the ‘establishment’ forced Mirza to tender their resignation). Ayub had set the template for justifying the Military take over by holding politicians singularly responsible for the ‘chaotic internal situation’ and accusing them of selling the country ‘for personal gains.’ For the masses reeling under socio-economic distress, this was seductive.
Similarly, the unhinged General Zia-ul-Haq who was ‘selected’ by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was personally responsible for sending Zulfikar to the gallows, after singing hosannas to the political leader, just before his elevation as the Pakistani Army Chief. Untrustworthy Zia had just hours before hanging Zulfikar Bhutto stated, “Mein Bhutto Sahib ko kaisey maar sakta hoon? Woh to merey mohsin hain.” Zia’s immediate promise on undertaking the ironic name ‘Operation Fairplay’ (coup in 1978)was to hold ‘free and fair’ elections within 90 days – he ruled ruthlessly till he died in a mysterious air crash, after 11 years!
Even Nawaz Sharif’s ostensibly ‘safe’ General Pervez Musharaff had dumped and exiled his benefactor, and then sought a three-year term to ‘set things right’ – only to remain as sticky and selfish as his co-Generals, before him. Musharaff’s populist pitch included getting back ‘looted money’, initiating structural reforms in the economy, cleansing corruption and devolving power to the grassroots – none of which ever fully materialized. He was no better or worse than civilian governments and if anything, he weakened the critical independence of the institutions of ‘checks and balances’ in a democracy. It is this backdrop of mayhem and distress that often gives succour to notions of military take-over. Shahid Abbasi’s warning is timely.
(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry. The views expressed are personal)
