The defining year of AI, 2023, offered us glimpses into understanding the plight of humanity under ‘despotic democracy' in many purported democratic nations
The year 2023 witnessed a profound clash between human existence and technological ascension. As machines surpassed algorithmic boundaries, humanity, paradoxically, embraced a perilous sprint towards self-imposed ignorance. From the ruthless expulsion of Afghan War refugees by Pakistan to the relentless march of Artificial Intelligence reshaping life's core, the world grappled with unprecedented shifts. Emerging threats in space programs and manufactured wars in Ukraine and elsewhere set a foreboding tone, while natural disasters claimed lives across Turkey, Morocco, and Afghanistan. In the midst of these upheavals, the demographic landscape transformed, as India eclipsed China as the most populous nation. In this crucible of change, humanity stands at the crossroads of technological marvels and enduring struggles, navigating an uncertain future.
In the Middle East, optimism for improved relations crumbled as Hamas attacked Israel, leading to the deadliest day in the nation's history. The conflict escalated, drawing global condemnation for alleged war crimes and prompting a U.S. shift from unequivocal support to calls for protecting civilians, leaving the resolution and aftermath uncertain as the year concluded. Simultaneously, Artificial Intelligence (AI) reached a pivotal juncture in 2023, notably exemplified by the advancement of technologies like large language models (LLM).
The latest iteration, reportedly ten times more sophisticated, fueled rapid interest from governments, businesses, and individuals. Optimists lauded AI's role in scientific breakthroughs, while pessimists warned of societal risks, including mass unemployment and heightened social inequalities. The year emerged as a defining moment for AI, epitomized by figures like Altman pushing boundaries, emphasizing the inevitability of business evolution, and underscoring AI's potential to reshape civilization itself, echoing Aldous Huxley's words, ‘civilization is sterilization.’
In 2023, climate change ceased to be a distant threat, emerging as an undeniable global reality. The year potentially witnessed record-high temperatures in the last 125,000 years, breaching the 2°C limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement and triggering a deluge of extreme weather events. From historic wildfires to punishing droughts and record floods, the consequences were stark. The ominous notion of ‘wet bulb temperature’ entered the global lexicon, highlighting the lethal combination of high humidity and temperatures. Amid this crisis, glimpses of optimism appeared, with surging investments in clean energy and the promising emergence of hydrogen. However, scepticism persisted regarding the scalability of these solutions against the backdrop of escalating fossil fuel production. International forums like the COP-28 provided conversational platforms, yet the vast chasm between rhetoric and action underscored the daunting challenge of effectively addressing climate change.
In purported 'democratic nations,' individuals often find themselves compelled to adhere to what is termed a 'despotic democracy,' where the emphasis lies on the will of the majority, fostering a system adept at constructing a series of fantasies to perpetuate its influence through human idiocy in decision-making. Conversely, the democratic fabric, particularly in Africa, is experiencing upheaval, as evidenced by coups casting doubt on the stability of democracies. The military ousting of Niger's democratically elected president in July triggered regional tensions while neighbouring juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso responded with threats of war. In August, Gabon witnessed a military takeover with vague promises of eventual elections.
As 2024 unfolds, elections will define the political landscape across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the West. Across Asia in particular, democracies representing 2.2 billion people and a combined GDP of US$8.9 trillion brace for pivotal polls. From the scheduled January elections in Bangladesh to pivotal contests in India, Russia, and the United States, where the Presidential race in November holds significant weight, the global stage is set for political upheaval. Anticipation surrounds the possibility of a return to power for the ruling Awami League in Bangladesh, securing a fourth consecutive term and affirming Sheikh Hasina's status as the world's longest-serving female leader. In the electoral theatre, the ejection seat holds the fate of leaders like Justin Trudeau in Canada, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre eyeing a potential succession bid.
In troubled Ukraine, martial law spared President VolodymyrZelenskyy from elections, allowing him to consolidate power. Despite a desperate plea for military service targeting Ukrainian men aged 25 to 60 abroad, over 700,000 from this group have fled since the conflict's onset, casting doubts on the enforceability of the invitation that carries the threat of sanctions for non-compliance. In 2023, Ukraine's counteroffensive against the Russian army faced resistance, leaving 18% of its territory still under Russian control. The war persists, and Vladimir Putin remains confident in Russia's ability to outlast Western support for Ukraine.
India, with its Lok Sabha election in April-May 2024, anticipates the incumbent coalition, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to secure a resounding victory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a diplomatic linchpin, played a crucial role in bridging global disparities during 2023. As the chasm between wealthy democracies and developing nations widened, Modi's adept diplomacy fostered compromises on climate policy and debt issues. Emphasizing national interest, Modi's leadership in the G7 and G20 reinforced India's standing on the global stage, though the quality of once-celebrated democracy in-house appeared to be frightening. On the flip side, President Xi Jinping, his main competitor, has played a significant role on the global political stage, engaging in BRICS and APEC, and spearheading peace efforts for Ukraine and Palestine.
In the Maldives, the political scene shifts with the opposition coalition, led by the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People's National Congress, anticipating a parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections. President Mohamed Muizzu, triumphant in the 2023 presidential race, positions himself for streamlined policymaking amidst the changing geopolitical landscape marked by uncertainty and determination. Meanwhile, Indonesia anticipates a seismic moment as presidential and legislative elections coincide in February, with predictions of a run-off in mid-2024. PrabowoSubianto, supported by incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi), aims for victory as the chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the current defence minister. In South Korea's April legislative election, prevailing expectations point to the liberal Minjoo Party securing parliamentary dominance, albeit with a reduced seat share. Iran, too, braces for legislative elections amid another political transformation.
Pakistan's National Assembly election in February is poised to elevate the ruling coalition, led by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), with military alliances fortifying their majority. Sri Lanka, marred by economic collapse in 2022, anticipates a presidential election by September. However, the incumbent president contemplates delaying the election to extend the IMF program's impact. Mongolia charts its course with parliamentary elections in June, where the ruling Mongolia People’s Party (MPP) aims to retain dominance, albeit with a potentially narrower margin.
In 2024, the technopolar world, as framed by Ian Bremmer, may intensify the polarization of multipolarism and politics, spanning the West and the Global South. A looming spectre emerges, teasing the possibility of an investable space conflict, an unprecedented venture into the unknown. In this tumult, the certainties we once knew may dissipate, leaving a transformed world where the only constant is change. Here's to navigating the uncharted waters of 2024, where the very essence of humanity may find itself reshaped amid the dynamic forces at play. Wishing you resilience and courage in the face of the unknown.
(The writer is a Sri Lankan journalist and worked as a communications consultant for the Government of Sri Lanka. Views are personal)
