Before Nitish divorced the RJD and shifted to the BJP camp in 2017, similar talks did the round about him squaring up with Modi in the electoral ring. But during the last five years the political scenario of the country has changed completely, and chances of Nitish’s acceptance as the Opposition face has increased proportionality, writes Navin Upadhyay
After Nitish Kumar dumped the BJP and embraced the RJD-led Grand alliance comprising Congress and the Left, speculations have once again gained ground that he could be the joint Opposition face to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 general elections.
Sources in the know of the agreement arrived between RJD and JD(U) claim that Nitish will contest the Lok Sabha election and move to national politics vacating his chair for Tejashwi Yadav.
Nitish may have denied that he harbors any ambition of occupying the PM’s office, but his warning shot to the BJP that the party may not be in power after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, is a clear indication that, as far he is concerned, the development in Bihar should not be seen in isolation and he could play a vital role in galvanizing the opposition across the nation.
Before Nitish divorced the RJD and shifted to the BJP camp in 2017, similar talks did the round about him squaring up with Modi in the electoral ring in 2019. But during the last five years, the political scenario of the country has changed completely, and the chances of Nitish’s acceptance as the joint Opposition’s face have increased proportionality.
For once, Congress has done little to claim the leadership of any such Opposition formation. Rahul Gandhi may be at the forefront of fighting a verbal duel with the BJP, but on the ground, the party has gained little result. In public perception, Rahul Gandhi lacks the ability to turn the tide of public opinion against Modi. Several opposition leaders such as West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao, and Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav are unlikely to endorse any move to anoint Rahul Gandhi as the face of the Opposition.
The recent raids by the CBI and Enforcement Directorate against TMC leaders and Ministers and the discovery of huge sums of money from them have considerably dented Mamata Banerjee’s image. Mamata’s refusal to back the candidature of Margaret Alva in the Vice-Presidential contest has also raised eyebrows. Her pow wow with Narendra Modi during her last visit to Delhi and her decision to attend the Niti Ayog meeting, which she always boycotted, has left tongues wagging in the political circles.
In such a scenario, Nitish could be one of the best bets to take on Modi for a variety of reasons.
First, he is someone with a clean track record who need not worry about the ED or CBI. Even his political rivals agree that Nitish Kumar is a stickler to rules and attempts to question his probity and integrity could very well bounce back on the BJP. At a time when the majority of the Opposition leaders are hounded by the central probe agencies, Nitish’s image is the strongest shield for them against the onslaught of the probe agencies. JD (U) national president Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh put this in perspective, saying, “The party was “not scared of ED and CBI.”
Secondly, the charges of dynastic politics often hurled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi against the Gandhis will not stick to Nitish Kumar. His son has never been seen in the public space,; no other member of his family has anything to do with politics.
Third, Nitish is one of the most experienced leaders in the Opposition rank. He has been Chief Minister for 17 years. He will also be remembered as a successful railway minister at the center. His stint as agriculture minister was also noteworthy.
Fourthly, and most importantly, Nitish Kumar can take on Modi on the caste turf as well, because like Modi he too belonged to an OBC caste. Modi’s persona as an OBC leader is one of the most important factors in the emergence of the BJP as an unbeatable force on the pan-India level and the saffron outfit’s deep penetration among non-Yadav voters. That’s where Nitish could be counted on to stop the BJP juggernaut. His Kurmi caste has a sizeable presence across India. If Nitish could end the traditional rivalry between the Yadavs and non -Yadav OBCs, then his Kurmi card could be a game changer in national politics.
It will be interesting to note that in the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh assembly polls, as many as 41 Kurmi candidates were elected to the assembly. Of them, SP won 13 seats, up from two they won in 2107 assembly polls. Kurmis population is pegged at nearly 8 percent in UP, and if Nitish chose to contest from one of the Kurmi-dominated seats in Easter Uttar Pradesh bordering Bihar, it could galvanize the entire OBC rank in UP just as Modi’s decision to shift to Varanasi did for the BJP. A Kurmi-Yadav-Muslim axis backed by whatever upper caste votes Congress drew in, could become a potent formulation in UP where the Ram Mandir issue will be certainly the BJP’s trump cars in 2024.
Nitish’s projection as PM’s candidate could have strong repercussions in states such as Chhattisgarh ( 20 pc Kurmi population), Jharkhand (10-12 pc), Maharashtra (7 pc), Gujarat where Patidars are seen as Kurmis ( 14 pc), Odisha (7 pc). Kurmis also have a sizeable presence in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan besides West Bengal.
In West Bengal’s Maoist-dominated Jangalmahal which comprises Jhargram, Purulia, West Midnapore, and Bankura, Kurmis make up nearly 40 percent vote share.
In such a scenario, Nitish’s possible projection as the joint opposition candidate against Modi will have far-reaching consequences in bringing together Yadavs and non-Yadavs OBCs under one umbrella. India may have come a long way, both economically and politically, from the days of Mandal euphoria, but the fact remains that In the Hindi heartland caste remains a reality in the electoral fights. Nitish has always frowned at being identified as a Kurmi leader, but that identity may become his strongest weapon against the BJP and turn the 2024 LS bout into a titanic clash between votaries of Mandal and Kamandal politics and ideologies.
Except for Mamata whose party sees her as a rightful claimant for taking on Modi as the joint opposition candidate after the TMC thrashed the BJP in the state assembly polls, the majority in the non-Congress Opposition rank may not have any reservation in accepting Nitish Kumar’s leadership. The silence of the Congress’ top leaders, especially the Gandhis, on the Bihar development is significant. While Nitish rang up Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi after quitting the NDA, so far the Gandhis have not publicly welcomed his decision or congratulated him.
For the opposition, there could be two possible scenarios in the run-up to 2024. First, Congress gives its nod to accept a non-Gandhi as the face of the Opposition to take on Modi. Secondly, if Congress refuses to do so, hoping against hope that Rahul Gandhi could mobilize the congress to defeat the BJP, then the opposition could revive the Third Front. In both cases, Nitish is in with a chance to emerge as a consensus candidate.
Before he shifted to the BJP camp in 2017, in private conversation Nitish would argue that to defeat the BJP the opposition must stop reacting to the discourse set by BJP and set its own narrative and present a comprehensive economic plan before the nation. Someone who has worked with the BJP for more than two decades, Nitish Kumar is more familiar with the BJP’s way of contesting polls and its stratagem. Whether or not he is the face of the Opposition in 2024, Nitish has certainly injected some interest in the battle of 2024, which looked hopelessly one-sided before he dumped the BJP and shifted to the opposition rank.
