The results of the by-elections to Rampur assembly seat and Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency will decide the fate of the politics of Samajwadi Party which banks on the social coalition of Muslims and Yadav -- the M-Y combination.
This combination represented by Akhilesh Yadav-Mohammad Azam Khan is already under strain as the SP has lost the by-election to Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha seats in June last. The two seats were won by Azam Khan and Akhilesh Yadav respectively in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Against the backdrop of the series of electoral setbacks suffered by the SP since 2014, the election results of Rampur assembly seat and Manipuri Lok Sabha constituency are keenly awaited.
Though SP claims it is winning both Rampur assembly and Manipuri Lok Sabha seats with comfortable margins, reports emanating from both the constituencies are not encouraging for the party. Akhilesh Yadav has left no stone unturned to win over his estranged uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav, who is MLA from Jaswantnagar, one of the assembly segments of Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency.
Rampur assembly seat has elected Azam Khan for ten terms while Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, known as pocket borough of the Yadav clan, has elected Yadav candidates in the last seven Lok Sabha elections since 1996.
The defeat of the SP in the bypoll to Azamgarh parliamentary constituency in June, was a major blow to the party. The by-election was held as SP president Akhilesh Yadav had vacated this seat following his election to UP assembly in March this year from Karhal assembly constituency in Mainpuri district.
The SP also lost from Rampur Lok Sabha seat, its bastion, in June last where bypoll was held as SP MP Azam Khan had resigned following his election to UP assembly from Rampur assembly seat.
Among the five assembly segments of Rampur Lok Sabha constituency, two are held by the Bharatiya Janata Party -- Bilaspur represented by Baldev Singh Aulakh and the Milak seat which elected Rajbala. By-election to Rampur assembly seat has been necessitated by the disqualification of Azam Khan following his conviction in a hate speech case by a Rampur court.
The SP has lost all major elections to the BJP since 2014. The BJP had swept the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh by winning 72 seats out of total 80 seats in the state. In 2017 UP assembly elections the BJP had wrested power from the SP by winning 325 assembly seats in a House of 403.
Ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the SP had forged alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal. The alliance proved to be a disaster as it could win only 15 seats out of total 80 seats with the BSP winning 10 seats, SP five and RLD drawing a blank.
Meanwhile, in a major setback to SP in Rampur, Fasahat Ali Khan, a close confidant of Azam Khan, has joined the BJP. Former MLA and member of Rampur royal family Nawab Kazim Ali Khan has already extended his support to BJP candidate Akash Saxena.
