Sanctions on Russia may have accelerated the transition from fossil fuels, but is it good enough?

For all the bluster of the West about imposing sanctions on Russia, not much is being done to stop the supply of oil and gas from Vladimir Putin’s country. The United States may have stopped importing these by an Executive Order in early March, but some European countries are still dependent on the supply. Part of the resultant embarrassment for the West because of its inability to completely stop all imports is perhaps directed at countries like India whose imports from Russia are negligibly small compared to their huge import orders. Politics apart, is it possible that the Ukraine invasion and the sanctions can be the trigger for the world to speed up the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy? That will make them wean away from Russian oil and gas while contributing to a greener world. The opportunity comes at a crucial time when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global temperatures will rise by 3.2 degrees Celsius if Governments do not act immediately to reverse the cascading effects of global warming. The report says global emissions can halve by 2030 with major transitions in the energy sector. Emissions will have to peak by 2025 and fall rapidly thereafter if the transitions have to have any positive impact. Coincidentally, countries dependent on Russian oil may also take four to five years to transit to greener fuels.

Take Germany, for example. Half its demand for natural gas comes from Russia. It was already moving toward renewable energy when the sanctions came in. It is working towards a target of 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2040. The deadline is now being advanced by five years. Already, most of the new housing projects use fossil-free energy for heating. However, it will not really help reduce emissions in the coming four to five years because till it has sufficient green energy, it has to look for new gas terminals to take deliveries from non-Russian sources. Similarly, it may take longer to wean away from coal. Still, a beginning is a beginning. In Denmark, over 50 per cent of the power supply comes from renewables. The country expects to stop all fossil fuel imports by 2035 and have renewable electricity and heat sufficiency by that time. However, issues of hegemony and social justice can prove serious drawbacks in the transition to green. The demand for lithium is expected to spiral for the transition to electric and wind energy. China already controls over half of the global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity. That may spark another global confrontation in the future. The other issue is how countries, while transitioning to cleaner fuels, take care of the poor impacted by reduced dependence on the coal economy. Solar energy faces similar challenges. In India, solar parks in Rajasthan are facing opposition as they are being set up on pasture lands that sustain dairy and animal husbandry operations of farmers in the arid region.