When will Omicron cases peak in India? Will it hasten the end of the pandemic? Nobody knows

We are still bracing for the surge of Omicron to turn into the third wave in India and there is already talk in other countries as well of the latest Coronavirus variant peaking quickly. How is that possible? South Africa reported the first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection from a specimen collected on November 9, 2021. The country reported over 27,000 new cases a day till the third week of December. Fresh cases subsequently fell to around 15,000 a day, except in two provinces. South Africa has now declared that “it was a short wave not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease”. The Government also stopped tracing efforts, did away with quarantine and lifted the 21-month-long curfew. By this time, Omicron had crowded out the Delta variant from the country. Ninety-five per cent of the new cases genome sequenced were Omicron-infected. The Government is confident that even if the decline in cases slows down after the relaxations, it will not lead to another spike. Omicron is currently raging in the United States and has accounted for 73 per cent of the new cases. In the New York area, it prevailed in 90 per cent of the cases reported. Omicron is the dominant variant in the UK and set to take over from other variants in 80 more countries. Scientists in the US predict a tough January but also say that the cases will quickly peak and fall fast. President Joe Biden’s medical advisor Anthony Fauci predicted that the Omicron wave may hit its peak by the end of January.

Meanwhile, Ireland also is confident that the current wave will reach its peak in a couple of weeks. Will India, now beginning to see an Omicron surge, also have a quick peak? There is no official word on this. Odisha is the only State to declare that it is preparing for a peak in the third week of January. Researchers at IIT Kanpur predicted that India’s third wave will peak in the beginning of February. All predictions are based on the fact that Omicron’s incubation period is short, transmissibility is high and, as fresh cases rise rapidly, there comes a point when the virus runs out of contacts who can be infected. That is when the cases will start to fall. So, it is reasonable to expect the Indian wave to conform to the pattern. It is also possible that in the absence of any other SARS-COV-2 mutants springing a surprise, the Omicron variant hastens the end of the pandemic once it replaces the existing variants. However, we know from the bitter experience of the second wave that the virus cannot be trusted. Remember, the Delta variant dashed all hopes of the vaccine fighting off the virus. We need to see through the wave taking full precautions and await the confirmation that Omicron has spared our lungs, as it has done in other countries.