The Government needs to balance its Omicron containment plan with thrust on economy

A fresh Coronavirus surge is finally upon us. The time for speculation is over. Curbs on partying mean a bland entry into the new year. Better bland than a grave welcome, considering that the Omicron-led surge advances rapidly when people’s indifference to safety protocols is glaring and the economy is on road to a fragile recovery. The supply chains are stretched, the inflation rate is worrisome and we have not fully got past labour shortages. Strict restrictions have the potential to once again disrupt supply and demand: Productive capacities could get badly affected and people could be wary of continuing with economic activity, especially in sectors where physical proximity cannot be avoided. The Government has so far not indicated any preference for curbs that would impact commercial and industrial productivity. At the same time, businesses in sectors like travel, tourism and hospitality — which are the first to face the brunt — want the Government to plan for additional policy support. With scientific studies indicating that Omicron may transmit fast but is not infectious enough to cause death, the Governments across the world, including India, are favouring a situation where precautionary curbs do not lead to economic disruptions. In the United States, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended cutting down the isolation time for asymptomatic infected people from 10 to five days so that they can return to work faster.

In other countries, isolation guidelines for fully vaccinated employees in critical economic sectors — education, healthcare, transportation, grocery stores and sanitation — are being relaxed if they have mild symptoms. Spain is also reducing the quarantine period while Italy is relaxing the isolation period for those who have come into close contact with infected persons. The UK is not inclined to issue fresh restrictions in the new year. In emerging economies like India, the Government has to strike a balance between containing the Omicron infections and keeping the economy going. A lockdown like in 2020 is out of the question unless the situation becomes dire. As it is, the consumer confidence index is far below pre-pandemic levels and the recovery largely depends not only on unimpeded productivity but also on the recovery of the poor keeping pace with the recovery of the non-poor. Workers are agitated with the curbs in place. Restricted travel on public transport looks odd when factories are operating at full capacity. Night curfews are impacting hoteliers and food suppliers. The Government needs to assuage them and come out with a policy statement for the third wave. Avoiding strict measures will mean, apart from a spurt in vaccinations, boosting testing, opening more vaccine sites, mobilising emergency response teams and closely tracking hospitalisation rates. Children can return to school if testing capacity is ramped up. It is easier to isolate those who test positive than keep all of them home for an indefinite period. We are better prepared now than in 2020 and that should reflect in our approach.