OBCs may have been satisfied with the call of Mandirs and mutts, but what they want is true empowerment where they have an equal share of power

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party got a major setback when a tall OBC leader representing the numerically dominant Kushwaha, quit Yogi’s cabinet and later joined Samajwadi Party with a vow to finish the BJP from the State. The day he joined SP, Swamy Prasad Maurya claimed that “it is a history that the party I leave is finished with the passage of time”. It could be a boastful assertion which he made when probably he got swayed by the massive crowd that assembled at the Samajwadi Party office to welcome him. But this switch is an indication that the rainbow coalition of upper caste, backward, and Dalits which the BJP had stitched assiduously in the last seven years has started crumbling.

The importance of Swami Prasad Maurya could be gauged from the fact that after him quitting the Government, two more ministers and around a dozen BJP lawmakers, all non-Yadav OBC leaders, resigned from the party. They have shown their loyalty to Maurya and claimed that they will swim with him. The indications are more desertions may follow. Incidentally, the majority of them were originally with BSP and had joined BJP along with Maurya after deserting Mayawati.

The revolt by these OBCs leaders against the BJP leadership ahead of the crucial UP assembly elections has come as a shot in the arm for the opposition Samajwadi party. Akhilesh Yadav tweeted a picture of himself with Maurya and wrote: “Saamajik nyay kaa inqalabhoga, baaes me badlavhoga (There will be a revolution in the field or social justice and there will be change in UP).”

The sudden political development caught the BJP leadership, which appears to have grown complacent after three back-to-back electoral successes in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 UP assembly elections, unawares. This victory centered around the support of backward communities, which account for 54 percent of the population. This support base was built brick by brick by Amit Shah in 2016 when he was the national president of the party. He was the one who picked up Swamy Prasad Maurya and persuaded him to join BJP along with his supporters.  The BJP needs to introspect as to why and how this support group disintegrated putting the party in a soup.

The resentment among backward against the Chief Minister Yogi is not new. The anger was simmering for the last couple of years. There is an impression that the BJP Government is pro-Thakur because Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath belongs to that caste. Word started spreading that the members of the backward community were being ignored.

Even the Deputy Chief Minister in the Yogi cabinet, Keshav Prasad Maurya, himself an OBC who belongs to the same caste as Swamy Prasad Maurya, showed his annoyance at the way the members of the backward community were ignored. The RSS leadership placated him and early last year when Yogi along with senior BJP leaders had a luncheon meeting with Maurya at his residence. The indications were that “everything has been sorted out” but the meeting failed to douse the anger of the backwards.

Political analysts, however, point out that the BJP in the last eight years with its social engineering politics along with the benefits through ‘Direct benefit transfer’ (DBT) believed that it has upstaged the caste-based identity politics. The BJP leadership believed that the members from the SC and the OBCs are no longer attracted to caste lines. It is believed that the economic needs of this section have been fulfilled by the Narendra Modi and Yogi Adtyanath governments in the last five years through the free distribution of food grains.

In fact, BJP mis-read the trend. Free distribution of food grains does not lead to empowerment of any caste. It is a feelgood factor for shorter period of time but at a longer run, it proved detrimental for the party. There is a belief among the villagers that the freebie scheme which has started, will not be withdrawn by the next government.

The way OBC leaders are leaving BJP is not a good sign for the ruling party particularly when an election bugle has been sounded because leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya and his colleagues still command clout in their respective communities and enjoy ideological weightage.

The voters from the OBCs and SCs will face the dilemma on the day of voting whether to respond to the traditional optics of caste appeal or go with the politics of economic and social empowerment. The Yadavs are already with Samajwadi Party and after leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya, Lalji Verma, and Ram Achal Rajbhar joined SP, now Akhilesh has become the focal point around whom the backward politics will revolve now.

What has happened last week is a clear indication that caste-based politics is threatening to upstage Hindutva politics, despite the saffron-clad Yogi Adityanath is the Hindutva icon for the BJP and the party’s campaign is revolving around Ram Janmabhoomi and Kashi Vishwanath Dham. There were rumours that Yogi would contest assembly elections from Ayodhya but later it was communicated he would contest from Gorakhpur.

BJP continued to play around the arrogance of Yogi by projecting him as the staunch Hindutva icon. Slogans like “Raj tilak ki karo tayari, aa rahen hai bhagwadhari (Get ready for coronation as a saffron-clad is coming)” were shared widely during the digital campaign kicked off two days back.

The party added further doses of Hindutva by propagating the construction of Ram Mandir and the inauguration of Kashi Vishwanath Dham as its achievements. A new twist was added to this Hindutva story when BJP leaders started talking about Mathura.

In contrast, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav who had contested the 2017 election on the development plank with the tagline of “Kaam bolta hai”, chose realpolitik as he shed all inhibitions and joined the caste bandwagon. He started his crusade by first asking for the caste-based census and even gave a slogan of “85 vs15” indicating that the OBCs were 85 percent of the population while the upper casteswere a minuscule minority of 15 percent.

He followed it up by scouting for new caste-based parties as allies. He even made it clear that Samajwadi Party will never have any trucks with big parties. He patched up with his estranged uncle Shivpal Yadav to consolidate the backward caste vote bank. The creation of a large coalition of the neglected, excluded and undocumented backward castes and Dalits could be a game-changer for the Samajwadi Party.

On the other hand, BJP’s social engineering tactics meant regrouping of the non-Yadav, non-Jatav OBC, and Dalit sub-castes in its favour. But what had happened in last two days is a clear indication that the members of the backward community are now asking for their pound of flesh. They are satisfied with the call of Mandirs or mutts but they want empowerment in the true sense — where they have an equal share of power. This has crumbled the cookie of Hindutva.

In short, the ghost of Mandal is out of Kamandal and it is set to turn the UP election on its head.

(The writer is Political Editor, Lucknow Edition. The views expressed are personal.)