Soon to be released from prison, the late Jayalalithaa’s companion is keeping her cards close to her chest. But 2021 is not 2017

VK Sasikala, a close aide and companion of former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, will be released from prison soon. Post-Jayalalithaa’s demise in December 2016, there was massive political turmoil and a major power struggle within the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) until Sasikala was sent to jail in February 2017 for four years. She is expected to walk out of the Parappana Agrahara prison in Bengaluru in January-end after completing her prison term in a disproportionate assets case. The big question is, will she become a factor in Tamil Nadu politics ahead of the Assembly elections scheduled to be held in April-May? Some believe that Sasikala can play a role and others say that she might bide her time for now but there is no way to know what her plans for the future are.

For Sasikala, it was the proverbial slip between the cup and the lip in 2017. She was about to become the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu soon after Jayalalithaa’s death but destiny took her to prison. People close to her say her ambition is intact though the politics of the State has changed in the last four years. Since, according to the law, Sasikala cannot contest elections for the next six years, she can only wield power from behind the throne.

In the absence of “Amma”, what impact will “Chinna Amma” have in politics of the State? Sasikala’s evolution into a politician after emerging from Jayalalithaa’s shadow was cut short abruptly and she should realise that the power she had as Amma’s companion was entirely on the seasoned politician’s terms. As of now, the options before her are not many. Much has happened in the State in the four years in which she was incarcerated. Chief Minister E Palaniswami has not only consolidated his hold in the Government and the party, he is also on friendly terms with the BJP. His biggest achievement is keeping the party united so far.

There is speculation that she might try to regain her lost position in the AIADMK and grab power back from Palaniswami as she still has many loyalists in the party. Her re-entry into the AIADMK would further complicate the political environment in the State. Her one-time loyalists, Palaniswami and the Deputy Chief Minister of the State O Panneerselvam, will resist this. However, the Ministers reiterating the party line notwithstanding, some second-rung party leaders striking a “working relationship” with the Sasikala-TTV Dhinakaran camp would only be beneficial for the AIADMK in the long run. Initially, the Coronavirus crisis had helped the AIADMK to improve its standing in the State. However, the growing number of infections eventually led to a dip in the popularity of Palaniswami. Above all, the party has also announced an alliance with the BJP for the forthcoming Assembly polls. The saffron party seems to be promoting the concept of a coalition Government in Tamil Nadu, an idea that the AIADMK is opposing strongly. The party has never shared power and all indications are that it does not intend to start now. The sudden raid on Sasikala’s property and the Income-Tax Department’s recent decision to attach a new palatial bungalow under construction for her, opposite Jayalalithaa’s house in the posh Poes Garden area, are an indication of this.

The next best option for Sasikala is to head her nephew Dhinakaran’s  party, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). Even this can pose a serious challenge to the incumbent AIADMK in the forthcoming polls. He had floated the party with Sasikala’s approval in 2017 and the AMMK has already taken away five per cent of the AIADMK’s votes. It must be remembered that Tamil Nadu has chosen either the DMK or the AIADMK since 1967. It is the turn of the DMK now. Sasikala has plenty of money and also political insight, given her long association with Amma. It is said that she and her nephew have some influence in South Tamil Nadu. This might cut into the AIADMK’s votes even further. Dhinakaran’s silence is an indication that there could be some deal in the works. There is also talk of a merger of the AIADMK and the AMMK but it is unclear as to what role Sasikala will play if this happens. The third option before Chinna Amma is to take a back seat, silently support the AIADMK and wait for 2026. However, an ambitious woman like Sasikala might not opt for this and try to run the show from behind the scenes.

“There will be no change in the party’s stand on matters concerning Sasikala,” the Chief Minister said recently. The statement assumes significance as it’s the first time that he has made a public statement on Sasikala’s impending release and her future in the AIADMK. The AMMK, meanwhile, claimed her release would have an impact on State politics. “We are eagerly awaiting Chinna Amma’s release,” said AMMK spokesperson CR Saraswathi. But for the jail term, Sasikala might have played a much bigger role in the AIADMK and Tamil Nadu politics. She is keeping her cards close to her chest but 2021 is not 2017. She will play her role directly or indirectly, however small it might be.

(The writer is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.)