Although the ISIS has experienced territorial defeat, it’s been able to confuse the enemy with its continual subterfuges, turning weaknesses into strength

Radicalisation that is being felt in India of the present can be attributed to the growing persuasion of the Hanbali school in the country by way of the revival of groups such as the Popular Front of India (PFI). Although PFI—whose top leadership are primarily from Kerala—deny the allegation that the organisation has any truck with the Hanbali school (another name for Wahabi and/or Salafi), the fact of the matter is that they have been radicalising Indian Muslims towards the conservative strain of Islam whatever be the denominations.

The Hifazat-e-Islam Bangladesh (HIB) and Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IOB)—Islamist formations that have re-emerged in current times and are becoming increasingly active after the Taliban takeover of Bangladesh—are close associates of PFI. The HIB and IOB are working inside Bangladesh as over-ground activists of al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliated organisations such as Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT). Bowing to immense pressure from the Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime apparatus of Bangladesh, both JMB and ABT have curtailed their activity for the present, propping up instead its surrogates by way of HIB and IOB. The stratagem is simple. The methodology is to instill a sense of complacence in the establishment that JMB and ABT has disappeared. The reality is that they have activated “Op Confusion” in Bangladesh as well as rejuvenated Islamism in Bangladesh.

Indeed, the timeline of the Islamist threat is quite simple. The author was able to plot a perceptible timeline during the period of his advanced research in the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA. The study unearthed a “progression of wave” in the modus operandi of Islamist action which incidentally would never cease until the end of time: the “transformative moment in Islam” is going to be never-ending. In fact, the manner in which the United States-led coalition has sought to de-territorialise ISIS from the area that the latter had occupied in order to sustain the neo-caliphate has ascertained that the “war against the infidels” would now not only be a ceaseless one but an accelerated course of action.

The point that is being made is that although ISIS has experienced territorial defeat it has been able to confuse the enemy with its continual subterfuges, turning disadvantages into advantages. A clear-eyed analysis would, therefore, bring to the fore the simplicity with which the Islamists are readying themselves for the next onslaught.

Therefore, whereas there was exhibition of massive violent movement and radicalisation between 1999 and 2005 which the author describes as the “First Wave”, the “Second Wave” began with the “oath of allegiance” or Bay’ah by groups such as JMB and ABT to ISIS in the wake of the formation of the neo-caliphate of Abu Bakr-al-Baghdadi. The territorial setbacks witnessed persistent “lone-wolf” attacks throughout the world including places such as Orlando and Nice and observers of Islamist action in Bangladesh would recall the “hostage situation” in Dhaka on July 1, 2016 and the machete killings and suicide bombings of the years following the event. The new “call to arms” was to decimate the infidel wherever found as the hijrah was no longer an undemanding affair. However, relentless action by the Bangladesh security forces against the Islamists have quietened the radicals momentarily and the “battle” has been—temporarily—handed over to the good offices of HIB and IOB who are keeping the movement alive by demanding aspects such as the enactment of “Blasphemy Laws”.

However, with the almost total territorial ouster of ISIS from the areas that it had occupied in Iraq and Syria the strategy is about to witness a sea change. Egged on by al-Qaeda and ISIS which is already inside India, its affiliates (including PFI) would throw open the gates of radicalism and don a form that would be hitherto the most menacing. It would be a combination of a) mass recruitment b) protests against acts, laws and ministration that a combined grouping of radicals considers un-Islamic—bringing thereby into their fold fence-sitters and moderates among the minority community and c) let loose sophisticated forms of violence that most agencies would not be able to even imagine.

Memories of Shakira, wife of Rashedur Rahman Sumon, a hardcore pro-ISIS, Neo-JMB cadre blowing herself up with her infant in her lap on 26 December 26, 2016 should be sufficient proof about the manner in which an “aping-exercise” would be engendered by Indian counterparts in what the author presages as the dawn of the “Third wave” of Radicalisation.

(The writer is a conflict analyst and author of Terror Sans Frontiers: Islamist Militancy in North East India. The views expressed are personal.)