The Government wants us to believe that while it took about three months to administer 1.91 crore vaccine doses, it will administer 20 times higher doses in less than half the time
After much persuasion and the Supreme Court along with more than 10 High Courts taking the Central government to the task, Prime Minister Narendra Modi allowed the nation a peep into his idea on the question of vaccination. This latest address left me perplexed with several unaddressed questions. Let me list out some of them.
The address began with Prime Minister confessing the fact that the country is still coming to terms with Covid-19 second wave. But to our surprise, Home Minister Amith Shah told the media few days ago, “India managed to control the second wave of Covid-19 in a very short time” and attributed this success to the visionary (?) leadership of Modi. This double-speak once again confirms that even after such castigation, the Central government made its best attempt to live in its make-believe world. The Prime Minister continued with untruths for the next few minutes with regard to augmenting medical infrastructure facilities for the anti-virus fight-back. The Supreme Court had castigated the Centre on this very issue. The funniest part of the speech is his stress on the observance of Covid-19 protocols.
The Prime Minister also referred to Mission Indradhanush, the immunization program for children below six years and lactating mothers to bolster his government's capacities of mass immunisation campaigns. According to the 2011 census, population falling under the age group of 0-6 years stands at 13.59 per cent (16.45 crore). Even after launching Mission Indradhanush, according to the Prime Minister, it took five years to vaccinate additional 40 per cent of child population, that is, roughly seven crore. If the government took five to six years to inoculate the additional numbers, we can imagine the time required to inoculate the total adult population in the first place.
The Prime Minister claimed that India developed two Made-in-India vaccines within a span of one year which is not true and does not require any proof. India rolled out the vaccination drive on January 16, 2021. Surprisingly, the Finance Minister in her 2021-22 budget speech, which was presented barely a fortnight later, told the nation that India exported vaccine to about 100 countries. If we were to believe what Prime Minister told the nation, it is a deemed fact that the finance minister committed a breach of trust and violated parliamentary protocols by presenting untruths on the floor of the House for which, in normal times, she would have been served a privilege notice.
The Prime Minister himself launched the first phase vaccination drive on January 16, 2021 for three crore frontline health workers. As on April 19, only 37 per cent got full vaccination and an additional 91 lakh their first dose. In his address to the nation, Modi once again said that by the time he speaks to his fellow countrymen again, about 23 crore of doses have already been administered. The government wants us to believe that while it took about three months to administer 1.91 crore vaccine doses, it will administer 20 times higher doses in less than half the time? That means the government administered dosage at the rate of 46 lakh doses per day!
Doubts arose over the Prime Minister's assertions about funding research and development of vaccine by the Central government. The things are not matching between what the Prime Minister said and what was submitted by the government's law officers to the Supreme Court. The affidavits filed by the government in response to its May 2 order said that no governmental aid, assistance or grant was given for research and development of Covid vaccine. The affidavit also states that the Indian Council of Medical Researcj spent about Rs 44 crore for clinical trials and government paid about Rs 2520 crore by way advance to purchase vaccine on May 10, 2021. Discarding government's own affidavits the Prime Minister told the nation that they funded thousands of crores for development of vaccine. We do hope that in the next submissions, the trusted Attorney General will correct his statements and let the country know about the thousands of crores the Prime Minister spent for development of vaccine program.
The Prime Minister in an attempt to defend the un-defendable, said his government's new path for the future was criticised by several forces including some state governments. This is totally baseless and an out of context contention.
Not only economic and health experts in India but those across the globe also criticised the Central government's unitary decisions during first phase of Covid-19 spread. As we all know, the lockdown was declared in hours without even visualising what would be the impact on lives and livelihoods. The lockdown was extended for months leaving the state governments without any option but to implement the same grudgingly.
Towards the end of this speech, Modi made it clear that the state governments need not spend a single pie to vaccinate the population. But the question that slipped through his master oratory skills is about the allocation for health in the 2021-22 budget. According to the ministry of finance, the amount required for fully vaccinating the country would be to the tune of Rs 91,000 crore whereas the total budget earmarked for Ministry of Health and Family Welfare for the year 2021-22 is Rs 71,268.77 crore only. The secretary, Department of Expenditure in his post-budget press conference stated that "the budget allocation is just part of what will be spent as state governments and corporates will also allocate sums for vaccination drive". However, only Rs 35,000 crores are announced and that too failed to get a listing in expenditure under Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Covering up this fact, the finance minister said that the amount earmarked towards transfers to state governments will be counted as part of the Rs 35000-crore vaccine funding. The expenditure department assesses that the allocations are enough to vaccinate 50 crore of the population.
This presents us with few dangerous possibilities. If the Central government mobilises Rs 35,000 crore from its own resources, and wishes to honour the Prime Minister's assurance to the world, it will fall short by Rs 56,000 crore. As the finance minister stated, if this Rs 35,000 crore too is to be chipped in by diverting funds from amounts earmarked under Transfers to States, in addition to what is budgeted orally by Finance Minister, even then there will be short fall of nearly Rs 20,000 crore, assuming that the cost estimated by secretary, Department of Expenditure is not breached. Or if the Central government plays smart and succeeds in transferring the cost of vaccination overtly or covertly on to the state governments, then there will be a hole in states' resources to the tune of a minimum of Rs 55,000 crore. Thus, the Central government' vaccination policy is leaving the nation with two sets of options., either to cut down other social expenditure and divert money for vaccination or watch the increase in number of deaths due to Covid-19.
The author is former CWC member, All India Agricultural Workers Union. The views expressed are personal.