Climate change is real; not acknowledging it is not going to protect us from the inevitable
If the rising temperatures in the last few days of February and an unusually hot March are bothering you, it is because most of the northern, western and eastern parts of India breached the 300C-mark nearly two to three weeks before they usually do. In fact, the country needs to brace for a hotter-than-usual summer this year as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that day temperatures are likely to be 0.860C higher than normal in the north, northeast, parts of east and west India between March and May. The worst impact is likely in Odisha and Chhattisgarh, where the maximum temperatures will deviate 0.860C from their usual averages. Last week, Bhubaneswar was the first region to record 400C anywhere in the country this year and Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh should brace for summer temperatures anywhere from 0.460C to 0.710C above normal. The IMD last month had said the minimum temperature recorded in the country in January was the warmest for the month in 62 years, with South India being particularly warm. It is not surprising that we experienced a shorter winter and are getting warnings of a sizzling summer ahead as, according to a Government report on current climate change impacts and future scenarios till the end of the century, India needs to control greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a war footing. The failure to do so will mean major heatwaves, droughts, cloudbursts, floods and a more degraded coastline, says a report by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
Worryingly, India’s average temperature rose by around 0.70C during 1901–2018 and, unless urgent steps are taken to control GHG emissions between 2070 and 2099 average, the temperature will rise by approximately 4.40C relative to the recent past (1976–2005 average). The high GHG emissions would increase the heat on Earth’s surface by 8.5 watts per square metre. Called RCP8.5, this is the worst-case scenario used by climate modellers worldwide. In a medium GHG emissions scenario, called RCP4.5, the average temperature in India would rise by 2.70C in the last 30 years of this century. Before that, during 2040-2069, India’s average temperature would rise by 20C in a medium emissions scenario, and by 2.40C in a high emissions scenario. Despite all nations making pledges under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, current emissions are taking the world to the worst-case scenario, though other development pathways are not only available but economically more attractive in the medium and long term. So, the only option before us is to go green, else we will perish because we are already feeling the effects of a planet that has been pushed to breaking point. The most recent examples of this are the Chamoli tragedy in Uttarakhand and the “Big freeze” in Texas. It is the collective responsibility of the peoples, every business and every industry on the planet to fight climate change so that we leave a greener, cleaner world for our children and not a dying planet.
