Mayawati’s claim of going it alone in the next UP polls could be a way of testing the waters, too
The UP elections are going to be a pre-run for the general elections in 2024; it is clear from the importance the political parties are attaching to the election. The old maxim goes “whosoever rules UP rules India”, thanks to its 80 MPs who can swing the balance. It is for this reason that political parties are already in election mode. They would not mind testing the political temperatures with their verbal jibes. Mayawati has announced that she would not have a tie-up with the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM and that the BSP would not have an alliance with any party for that matter in UP. The advance announcement is interesting. She was trying to gauge the reaction of other players or it was sincere admission, we don’t know. Mayawati holds the key to UP with around 20 per cent Dalit votes behind her. She on her own cannot rule UP and would need to have an alliance if she wants to see herself on Yogi’s chair. Which party, is still a mystery. Unpredictable and shrewd, she is keeping everyone guessing. As she knows well, all parties need her votes. Interestingly, despite a consolidated vote behind her, the BSP has been unable to translate them into wins.
The Bua-Bhatija alliance has not worked. In the 2014 general elections, BSP could not get a single seat in UP. In 2019, she managed only 10 seats. In the 2017 UP election, BSP won only 19 of the 403 seats contested. Mayawati’s announcement should be music to BJP’s ears. In effect, she says that the SP-BSP alliance is not happening. However, this could be a tactic to put Akhilesh Yadav on the back foot and yield more seats if he at all wants an alliance. Even if she goes solo, it would be helping the BJP, as the Dalit vote is not what the BJP eyes particularly. The BJP has UP right now but it is facing many challenges. Political alliances would be critical in UP. The BSP’s decision would be important as its vote share remained unmoved at 22 per cent even in 2017. The 2022 election would be crucial for Mayawati as well. She will have to prove her hold over Dalits. Then there is a clear threat from Bhim Army’s Chandrasekhar, an emerging Dalit leader. He is likely to challenge her authority as a Dalit leader sooner than later!
