The US may also turn more cavalier in criticising Pakistan as it would no longer depend on Islamabad to sustain its presence in Afghanistan

On July 15, the Twitter handle of the Pakistani Military (DG ISPR) carried a condolence message on the demise of a former Pakistani President and on July 21, another condolence message on the demise of a journalist — crucially, it remained silent about a major terror attack in between, killing nine Chinese workers and four others. A full-fledged Pakistani Army Division (34th Light Infantry Division), also known as Special Security Division (SSD), dedicated to protecting Chinese workers and assets of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has been operational since 2016. But this elaborate security cover has not deterred Pakistani groups opposing the perceived usurpation of their local rights, from repeatedly targeting the Chinese.

Last year, the attackers shifted their focus from the hinterland to urban centres and Karachi witnessed a flurry of attacks on Chinese expatriates, and the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, Nong Rong, himself survived an attack in Quetta earlier this year. The Pakistani Taliban had claimed responsibility for targeting “locals and foreigners”, though Baloch and Sindhi groups too have routinely targeted the Chinese. The embarrassment for the Pakistani Military in their inability to guarantee security to their “all-weather friends” did lead to some ham-handed attempts to deflect the latest attack as a mechanical accident caused by “ignition of gas canisters” — Beijing wasn’t amused and after some plain speak, both sides agreed to “bring the terrorist attack perpetrators to justice”. The awkwardness got compounded by Prime Minister Imran Khan having to personally call up Xi Jinping and reassure him of Pakistani efforts — only to be told that a Chinese investigation team would “assist” in the bombing probe in Pakistan! Embarrassing images on social media have surfaced of Chinese workers in Pakistan carrying weapons on themselves, to protect against any security threat, in a clear rebuke and dissatisfaction of the Pakistani arrangements.

Besides the $65 billion financial punt and stakes in the CPEC, this attack has been the deadliest attack on the Chinese personnel in recent times, and the Chinese are getting a direct flavour of the Pakistani patronage and nurseries of terror that have historically wreaked havoc in India, Afghanistan and Iran. The Taliban, be it the Tehrik-i-Taliban (Pakistani Taliban) or the multiple strains of the Afghan Taliban, all owe their genesis to the Pakistani establishment. Today, unintended consequences of official Pakistani dalliance with extremists are additionally borne by the likes of the hitherto silent China. Amidst the Taliban’s surge in Afghanistan, President Ashraf Ghani has repeatedly insisted on the “negative role” of the Pakistanis, only to be rebuffed by the Pakistani Foreign Office about the “idiotic” statements from Afghanistan. While China had remained complicit on the known Pakistani duplicitousness on terror so far, the recent attack on its own people and interests may trigger a rethink.

The Chinese are already connecting the dots on the perilous future with its official mouthpiece, Global Times, wondering: “The East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) terrorists who flee from Afghanistan to Pakistan may also conduct the terror attacks targeting Chinese.” But the incorrigible Pakistanis are still playing the staid track of blaming others for their own woes, with incredulous suggestions for the recent attack emanating from “forces from a third country” — the euphemistic allusion across the Line of Control (LOC) is not missed on anyone, except that is it not believed by anyone, not even the Chinese. There has been immense global cynicism about the Pakistani handling of the terror ecosystem, which has led to even the traditional patrons in the Arab Sheikdoms to give the Pakistanis a cold shoulder, besides the relentless pressure from the global terror-watchdog agency, Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Only geography had saved China and Turkey (two remaining supporters of Islamabad at international fora) — the looming change of neighbours for the Chinese in terms of the inevitable Taliban-led Afghanistan will fundamentally change the lens for the Chinese now.

The optics of the frenetic Chinese engagement with the Afghan Taliban, most likely with the facilitation of the Pakistani interlocutors, will further strengthen the Chinese view of Pakistani leverage on the Taliban and, therefore, Islamabad’s future accountability for the behaviour of the Taliban towards the Chinese. That would be a very slippery slope of expectations for the Pakistanis to hold up to as the Taliban is an uncontrollable “extremist idea” and not a disciplined or a monolithic organisation. The postulated prospects of the Chinese freely mining Afghanistan’s incalculable natural resources or partaking its Belt and Road (BRI) imperatives, may not turn out as seamless as envisaged. Any disruption, bloodshed or reneging by the Taliban will also lead to fingers getting pointed at the Pakistanis, simultaneously. Inadvertently, the US may be able to inflict much more pressure on China by abandoning Afghanistan (with the 76-km-long Afghanistan-China border) than it did with the American Military “boots on ground”. The US may also turn more cavalier in criticising Pakistan as it would no longer depend on Islamabad to sustain its presence in Afghanistan anymore. While the Taliban may have tactically reassured the Chinese about the future, for now — but given their nativist, puritanical and irascible moorings, for them to spurn the beleaguered Uighurs in favour of Communist China will be impossible. The Chinese, too, are in a thick soup in the Af-Pak quagmire.

(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry. The views expressed are personal.)