Will the overambitious Xi be able to steer China through its present crisis or would he cause the CCP’s demise? It will all depend on how he reacts to global isolation and discord within the party
In an unprecedented move, China recently removed the military from the Government’s control and expanded the powers of its Central Military Commission (CMC), headed by Xi Jinping. The CMC will now be able to mobilise military and civilian resources in defence of national interest, both at home and abroad. The new Defence Law has removed policy and decision-making from the State Council (the Cabinet), thus consolidating power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Xi. It is aimed at strengthening the military leadership under Xi, providing it with the legal grounds to respond to the challenges of accelerating confrontations in which China is embroiled with its neighbours and the US. It empowers Xi to deal firmly with situations that could harm the communist regime at home and abroad. The CMC will now be responsible for the formulation of the National Defence Policy removing it from the purview of the State Council.
Has Xi realised that his move to take on India, that was aimed at sending a strategic message, has backfired? Coupled with this, many other decisions taken by Xi in 2020 are haunting him. There is increased dissension and threat to the regime, spurring a debate on the fallout of these follies on the future of Xi and the CCP. It being a single-party State, the CCP is synonymous with China.
Empirically speaking, no totalitarian party so far has ruled for more than 74 years. The CCP has already entered the 72nd year. It relies on three “Ps” to maintain its iron grip on China. Personnel control, Propaganda and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). In his effort to consolidate the rule of the CCP and its ideology, Xi has assumed firm control of the three “Ps”, sidelining the “collective leadership” propounded by his predecessors and thus becoming a virtual dictator.
In the process, is the CCP yielding control to Xi and being undermined? In the absence of collective leadership Xi is surrounded by a coterie which, instead of giving rational advice, generally accedes to the Paramount Leader’s thinking? In his urge to become the most powerful Chinese leader and be equated with Chairman Mao Zedong, he has taken a few decisions which are proving counterproductive, leading to dissension within and against the party. The latter is fuelled more by external forces determined to overthrow the communist regime by taking advantage of growing economic disparity and growth of two distinct classes in China. Plus, the expansionist ideology of the CCP followed aggressively by Xi is a major bone of contention at the global level.
When the communists under Mao seized control of mainland China in 1949, it aggressively distanced itself from its feudal past. However, under Xi there has been a concerted attempt to merge the past with the present. In order to combat the dissent against the CCP, he has projected the party as the inheritor of the great Chinese empire of the past. Despite being born with a “Red spoon”, Xi was not parachuted to the top and had to work his way up. His family background and the subsequent struggle to rise to power has made him ambitious, adamant and a committed communist.
Xi took over the reins of the party in 2012 when it was in a disarray. In the process of consolidating his position and hold over the party, he brought an end to the “collective leadership” system and became all powerful by grabbing all the three powerful posts in China, including a resolution passed for abolishing the President’s term limit, enabling him to rule indefinitely. This act has not gone down well with young and aspiring leaders within the CCP who see a dark future for themselves and no chance of rising to the top. Like all authoritarian leaders Xi, too, has a fair number of dissidents and domestic opponents.
During his consolidation of power, among other things, he has relied a lot on emphasis on ideology and nationalism. To fulfil his ambition he announced a roadmap, that is often referred to as the ‘China Dream.’ The underlying idea behind the China Dream is to restore the former Middle Kingdom’s glory and regain Chinese supremacy through expansionism. It is also aimed at minimising internal dissension through national unity. Xi’s ambition is to make China not only stronger but assertive and the world’s number one power by 2050.
China, under Xi, has witnessed substantial growth, thus seeking a greater leadership role in world affairs. At the same time his repressive policies in Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong as well as excessive curbs on academic freedom, issues like ecological degradation and the widening wealth disparities at home, a protracted trade war with the US and aggressive behaviour with its neighbours have posed serious challenges for the party and Xi, both domestically and globally.
The policy of forced population transfers is also proving counterproductive due to fewer livelihood opportunities in the new habitats, causing widespread dissatisfaction. The income disparity between the rural and urban population also poses a serious threat. His attempts to introduce a legal framework in China has drawn flak from the hardliners within the party who consider the CCP to be above any law.
After the outbreak of Covid-19, for which many nations blame China, Xi has been mired in controversies due to various decisions taken by him that have led to the weakening of China globally and the CCP domestically. To combat the global anger against China, Xi embarked on an aggressive policy to silence his critics and dissenters at home. In the process, he committed the Himalayan blunder of employing the PLA to “teach” India, its potential competitor, “a lesson.”
By doing so, he wanted to convey a strategic message but the resolute response of India thwarted all his hopes and put him on the back foot, severely denting his image at home and abroad. His simultaneous aggressive moves in the South China Sea (SCS), the East China Sea (ECS), Hong Kong and Taiwan, too, drew stiff resistance. There was a global outcry to halt the expansionist designs of the CCP turning it into a battle of ideologies: Communism versus democracy; authoritarian versus the Free World. The “Wolf Warrior diplomacy” and the “Three Warfares” strategy of Xi not only proved counterproductive but led to complete Chinese isolation and increased abhorrence for the CCP.
His adventurism in the seas and on the borders with India resulted in a unified alliance by the West and by nations in the neighbourhood against China. The QUAD is fast turning into a military alliance from just a formal grouping. Japan is strengthening its armed forces. Australia has become more belligerent vis-a-vis China. India has signed pacts to augment defence and economic engagement with Vietnam and Japan; both victims of Chinese aggression. Taiwan is determined to face the mainland hegemony and not to succumb to its threats. Taiwan’s determination is buoyed by increased support from the US. The UK, US and France have begun aggressive patrolling of the SCS. All eyes are now on US President-elect Joe Biden and his China policy, which is expected to be tougher and more damaging than his predecessor Donald Trump’s. But for a handful of friends in Turkey and Pakistan, China under Xi faces total global isolation.
Even at home, things do not appear to be better due to growing unemployment, loss of business, relocation of global companies, the fallout of control over Hong Kong, disruption and realignment of global supply chains, food shortage, growing income disparities, cruelties of the PLA and suppression of dissent with an iron hand. These are all adding to the woes of Xi.
The implementation of the recently-introduced Civil Code, an effort to introduce the Rule of Law, would be another litmus test of Xi’s hold over the CCP. There is bound to be conflict of interest in its successful implementation and maintenance of the supremacy of the CCP. Growing demands for reforms and resistance by the ethnic communities of the autonomous regions to forced “Sinofication” is a tinderbox that may lead to the demise of the CPC and China’s balkanisation as and when it explodes.
China is at a unique point in history. The CCP has presided over the country for more than seven decades and is close to the shelf life of contemporary totalitarian parties.
Will the all-powerful and overambitious Xi be able to steer China through its present crisis or would he cause the demise of the CCP? It will, to a large extent depend on how he reacts to China’s global isolation and growing dissension within the party.
Former professor Cai Xia, who has been recently expelled from the elite Central Party School, has criticised Xi and said that under his regime the CCP is not a force for the progress of China. She said there was widespread opposition within the party but few dared to speak out as they were afraid of political retaliation in the form of internal party discipline and corruption charges. The China watchers are keeping their fingers crossed.
(The writer is a Jammu-based veteran, columnist, security and strategic analyst. The views expressed are personal.)
