The freak weather because of climate change can lead to a drop in foodgrain production, resulting in an increase in poverty and malnourishment among children, forcing the government to look for new options to counter the impact of climate change.

Severe winters followed by very hot summers and unpredictable rains can be detrimental for agriculture.

UP’s Agriculture Minister Surya Pratap Shahi said the impact of climate change and global warming could be felt in the state as there was a greater frequency of droughts and floods — the hallmarks of climate change.

Agriculture scientist Dr Aditya Shukla says crops have been affected due to rise and fall in temperature. “Untimely increase in the temperature destroys the growing flowers of crops, resulting in decrease in agricultural production and as there is change in direction of wind from west, it reduces the size and number of food grain resulting in low production,” he said.

“If our foodgrain production goes down, it will not only increase poverty but also push more children into malnutrition bracket because they will not have enough to eat,” Dr Shukla said.

“Today, we are not feeling the pinch because Uttar Pradesh is a foodgrain surplus state but its production is likely to go down fast if corrective measures are not taken in time,” the scientist added.

UP has been divided into nine agro climatic zones. Around 80 per cent population of the state is engaged in agricultural activities. Out of these, around 91 per cent are small farmers who solely depend on agriculture for their livelihood.

“The area of agriculture has worsened. There is prevailing situation of drought and flood due to the geophysical features of the state and natural calamities of last 10 years are indicating big crisis. Uncertainty in monsoon, changing pattern of flood, increasing durations of drought and flood, an increase in water crisis, violent storms etc. can be seen in the region,” said Dr Maninder Singh, who has carried out a study on agriculture and its pattern in UP in the last 10 years.

In eastern UP, which is chronically flood-prone, the very nature of flooding has changed, with a greater intensity of flash floods characterised by change in flooding patterns too. Crop damage is on the rise.

“Cropping patterns are changing. Pulses, once a major crop in the area and a major source of protein, are not grown due to the longer periods of waterlogging which disrupts the whole crop cycle and production, even in the rabi season, hitting production,” Dr Singh said.

The story is different in Bundelkhand where people have taken loans from private moneylenders but have failed to repay. “As this rugged area gets hot during summer, water becomes scare and they are forced to move out to earn a living,” he said.

The State of India’s Environment Report says that the biggest impact of climate change has been on human migration. With increasing intensity and frequency, natural disasters now affect more than half of India’s population, both in rural and urban areas.

According to the National Disaster Management Authority, 27 of the 37 states and Union Territories are disaster-prone. Some 68 per cent of the cultivated land is vulnerable to drought, 58.6 per cent landmass is prone to earthquakes, 12 per cent to floods, 5,700 km of the coastline is prone to cyclones and 15 per cent of the area is susceptible to landslides.

The 2011 Census shows that 405 million people (or 33 per cent of the country’s population) are on the move, with some 9.9 million people migrating from one state to another every year.

Experts believe that Uttar Pradesh is facing the brunt of weather change.

“We are sitting on the cusp of a change. The government needs to act fast otherwise it will be too late,” Dr Shukla said.