In all probability, Rajinikanth is bound to have a secret or open understanding with the BJP as both need each other
Will the BJP be able to rope in Tamil superstar Rajinikanth, who has announced plans to launch his much-awaited political party in January 2021? The actor is a phenomenon and will be a major factor in the forthcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly polls, scheduled for April-May 2021. He has chosen this time to make his political debut because there is a huge vacuum in the State after the demise of two former Chief Ministers and political heavyweights, M Karunanidhi of the DMK in 2018 and J Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK in 2016.
“It is the need of the hour. If it is not done now, it will never be done. For this, I urge the people to stand by me. Together we will bring change,” the star-turned-politician tweeted this week. There has been speculation that he is inclined towards the BJP, though Rajinikanth has been rather coy about discussing his plans. The problem for the BJP is that if Rajnikanth’s party decides to go it alone and contest all 234 seats, it will eat into the BJP’s ally, the AIADMK’s vote share more than that of the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam). Rajinikanth’s entry comes at a time when the incumbent AIADMK-BJP alliance, the DMK-Congress-Left Front, and another superstar Kamal Haasan have already firmed up their alliance. With the BJP’s ambitious plans to expand in the South, is it possible for Rajinikanth to join the BJP-AIADMK combine? Have the elections become a game of arithmetic?
The megastar had been putting off entering politics since 1996, when the Congress first offered to make him its chief ministerial candidate to counter the then Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. Since then, the Congress as well as the BJP have been wooing him. “The time to rewrite Tamil Nadu’s destiny has come. There’s a great need for change... it’s now or never. Voted to power, we will change everything,” Rajinikanth promised this week. Failing repeatedly to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu, the BJP had been trying to goad the actor into entering politics, but he had resisted the party’s overtures so far.
The BJP is handicapped, with no tall leaders at the State level, and would like to use him as its mascot. Being a megastar, he has the advantage of being a known face and has a huge fan following and clubs. He proposes to launch a spiritual party as opposed to the atheist Dravidian parties. It will be advantageous to the actor too, as the BJP is a disciplined party and has both manpower and money. The BJP would also help facilitate other things like registration of his new party and so on. So both think that they are natural allies.
Second, Rajinikanth does not have time to build a party before the polls. His fan clubs alone will not be enough. Though he had asked his followers to register their names on his website, you need teams for booth management and door-to-door campaigns and so on. The BJP has already loaned Arjun Murthy, head of the State BJP’s intellectual cell, as “chief coordinator” of the new party, indicating what is to come. While the BJP has welcomed his entry, Deputy Chief Minister and AIADMK coordinator O Panneerselvam has also hinted at a possible alliance with Rajinikanth’s party. Addressing a meeting in Theni this week, he said: “We welcome great film actor Rajnikanth’s decision to enter politics. In politics, anything can happen. If there is an opportunity, an alliance will be formed.”
Rajinikanth, too, has some challenges to face. First of all, the field in Tamil Nadu already has two strong Dravidian parties — the DMK and the AIADMK, who share a combined vote bank of 50 per cent. The other, smaller, but significant regional players such as the PMK (Paattali Makkal Katchi) and actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam) are in the line-up too. Second, the star has some health problems as he had undergone a kidney operation and might not be able to withstand a rigorous election campaign. Third, so far there is no clarity on whether his party will fight next year’s Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu independently or strike an electoral alliance. Fourth, in a caste-ridden State, forward castes, such as the Mudaliars, have divided their loyalty between the two Dravidian parties for long. As for the dominant castes, the Gounders have Chief Minister E Palanisamy of the AIADMK, the Thevars have O Panneerselvam, the Vanniyars have Dr Ramadoss and the Scheduled Castes have the VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi). Vijayakanth’s DMDK, the Vaiko-led MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), the two Left parties and actor-turned-politician Hassan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam share the caste groups. The minorities go with the DMK or the AIADMK. Parties such as the CPI (M), the CPI, the VCK and the MDMK are aligned with the DMK coalition.
In all probability, Rajinikanth is bound to have a secret or open understanding with the BJP as both need each other. The problem for the actor will be who to attack during the campaign, the Centre or the State Government? Many indications are that the star will lean towards the BJP.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
