Gorkha leader Bimal Gurung drops BJP for TMC. But how much has the latter had to give up to meet him half-way?

Bimal Gurung has been a bit of a maverick as a leader who won’t settle for anything less than a separate State of the Gorkhas by fair means or foul. He has been absconding for three years after an agitation for statehood turned violent, killing a police officer. And for his disruptive and militant value, he has been patronised by the BJP to make significant inroads in north Bengal and increase both seats and vote share in the State during both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.  The Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) that he founded is itself a divided house today with moderates wanting a rule-based political solution and wary of Gurung’s wild ways. One that the BJP has also not encouraged after an unexpected Lok Sabha verdict in Bengal last year. So Gurung has switched sides and decided to support Trinamool Congress (TMC) in next year’s Assembly elections. Turncoat politicians are not trustworthy but TMC leader and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is a bit hemmed in here, having failed to break through Gorkha parties on her own. She is now using him to contain the BJP and wrest the political ground she ceded to it. This is not quite a coup but a political necessity for her though she has exposed herself to the criticism that she may have had already conceded Gorkhaland as part of a trade-off and forgiven Gurung after issuing a lookout notice for him in 2017. Of course, having rehabilitated and protected himself with this new arrangement, Gurung is taking the high moral ground, saying 12 years of aligning with the BJP, which as a Central party he thought could make statehood a reality, had been an empty promise. And claims that while the BJP never fulfilled his demands, Mamata always delivered whatever she committed to. This has led to speculation on what she must have promised in exchange for his support. TMC has steadily waned in the region as BJP, which propped up Gurung in 2009, has made huge gains and more or less become a national champion for the Gorkha cause. Now after the BJP’s powerful showing in the Lok Sabha, Mamata is scrounging for every bit of cushion that she can get as the Central party chases her down to the finish line. Faced with a threat to her political survival, she is willing to take a risk with Gurung. Apart from Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Kurseong, Gorkhas matter significantly in about 17 Assembly seats in north Bengal. Gurung still has a magnetic hold on the Gorkha vote and can determine political outcomes of any party he chooses to align himself with. Although the TMC had some hold here, with 23 of the 54 seats in 2016, post-Gurung and his tie-up with the BJP, it has been virtually wiped out. With him, it hopes to improve its performance in the region and halt the BJP run.

But how encashable is Gurung after three years of being in the wilderness? Now that the GJM has factions, can he hold it together? Also many are wondering if he has compromised his original stand on full statehood in return for the TMC Government pausing the cases lodged against him. Yes, the TMC may hold the Damocles’ sword over him but that could also mean that Gurung cannot afford to sound as fiery as before. The risk here is that another firebrand leader could then easily be inspired or propped up by parties to replace him. Gurung has cleverly bought time till 2024, saying he will work with Mamata to fulfil the dream of statehood. He can always jump ship again if things don’t work out. Gorkhaland is more about the political economy than the realisation of a people’s dream. And no party that wants to rule Bengal would want to part with it but keep it on the boil.