If Jinping is able to overcome the domestic challenges he faces now, he would emerge a dictator. India, therefore, has to be prepared for a probability of re-occurrence of aggression on its borders
President Xi Jinping’s ambition to make China an undisputed global superpower has changed the entire geo-political dynamics. The phenomenal rise of Xi has made China more aggressive. He has emerged as the most powerful leader of China after Mao Zedong. Born in a politically-influential family in 1953, he witnessed the Mao era closely and saw the ruthless face of Zedong when his father was purged and jailed during the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution. Though his father was rehabilitated after the death of Mao, these events left a long-lasting impression on his mind which got further hardened during Xi’s initial struggle within the Communist Party which he joined in 1974. He spent decades working his way up the party and Government ranks but his consolidation of power since becoming General Secretary, the head of the party, in 2012 has been unprecedented. In 2013, he also became the President of the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC), thus assuming charge of all the three most-coveted posts in the party and Government. He represents the new generation of Chinese because he is the first General Secretary born after the establishment of the PRC. Xi today is the President of PRC without term limits. Incidentally, he now has 12 posts that give him control and oversight over most areas of Government, the economy and military. Xi, therefore, is the most authoritarian world leader today, who is ruthless with any form of opposition to him at home and visualises himself as a potential supreme leader of the world.
It goes to the credit of Xi that during his tenure China has grown economically and militarily. China surpassed Japan to become the second-largest economy in the world and global manufacturing hub. He effected a large-scale purge in the military brass to end corruption in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). This was followed by structural reforms to make PLA a lean and modern fighting force with emphasis on mastering the three domains of cyber world, space and information.
Xi proved to be a leader who can rise to challenges. But his bitter experience during the Cultural Revolution has made him an authoritarian man who does not trust anyone. He abhors challenge to his authority or to his “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation. Thus, he has crushed dissent in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet. In pursuance of his Middle Kingdom ambition, he has refused to accept international laws and treaties and persisted with expansionist designs in the South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea (ECS) while continuing with salami-slicing in the neighbourhood to include India, Nepal and Bhutan. His ambition to be a global leader has led to a no holds barred conflict with the sole superpower, the US. Xi is convinced that the main rival of China is the US and all others are mere pushovers and that has determined his behaviour and actions as far as the disputes in the SCS, the Sino-India border and disputes with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are concerned.
All was going well for Xi till the outbreak of the Coronavirus. The ongoing trade war with the US was also tilted in his favour till the pandemic spread across the world with its roots in China. All of a sudden Xi was being attacked globally as well as domestically. The strong Chinese economy began to show signs of crumbling. The demand for closing factories in China and relocating them grew louder by the day. India was being considered a probable alternative. The US seized the opportunity and led the global offensive against China, accusing Xi of deliberately delaying the information regarding the outbreak. The global economy was in the doldrums with nations resorting to prolonged lockdowns and most countries blaming China for the contagion.
Xi’s dream of the 21st century belonging to China began to crumble gradually. His plan of ending poverty in China by 2020 suffered the biggest setback and it emerged as his toughest year. Xi’s unchallenged status at home came under threat and in order to divert attention he began to pursue an aggressive policy to portray Chinese supremacy. He let loose his “wolf warrior” diplomats to counter the global diplomatic and political onslaught. Simultaneously, he began to flex muscles in the SCS and ECS. He started the process of gaining complete control over Hong Kong, denouncing the “One Nation Two Systems” promise. The regime change in Taiwan, too, annoyed Xi. He began to behave like a medieval king eager to extend frontiers and win glory.
Challenging India in the trans-Himalayan icy battlefield was meant to teach New Delhi a lesson for challenging the Chinese ownership of Aksai Chin. China was convinced that New Delhi would not challenge its occupation of Aksai Chin till the Indian Home Minister roared in the Parliament that his reference to Ladakh included Gilgit-Baltistan and Aksai Chin. It rattled Beijing more than Pakistan because it could afford to lose neither of the two.
Despite China’s denial, the world community noted with concern the sinking of Vietnamese fishing boats in the SCS, the unilateral decision to name new Chinese districts in the area, sanctions against Australia, browbeating of Japan in the ECS, unilateral actions in Hong Kong, Ladakh incursions, manipulation of Nepal, claims on the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary in Eastern Bhutan and on the Siberian town of Vladivostok.
Buoyed by the passive response of other nations, Xi ventured to provoke India at Galwan Heights expecting meek submission. But the brawl at those icy heights on the night of June 15 not only took the Chinese by surprise but also put the fear of God in its soldiers about the fighting prowess of Indian soldiers. The Chinese plan to teach India a lesson not only backfired but the Galwan face-off proved to be a turning point, which may well turn out to be a reason for renewed vengeance. The global community acknowledged India standing up to the bully and paying him back in the same coin. India followed it up with an economic offensive as well. The changed scenario had a ripple effect. China’s victims realised that the dragon could be held off.
ASEAN nations for the first time spoke in unison, asking China to follow international laws on maritime boundaries. Japan reacted offensively by deploying near the disputed islands, Bhutan vehemently asserted its claim over Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary and refused to be cowed down, Russia agreed to fast track arms supplies to India, the US moved three aircraft carriers in the SCS, Australia refused to take Chinese students and broke trade ties with it.
The Chinese economy, too, suffered a big blow, putting greater pressure on Xi. Following the Indian ban of 59 Chinese apps, cancellation of contracts signed with Chinese companies in the telecom, construction and MSME sectors and the growing demand for boycott of Chinese goods, other nations, too, began to ban Chinese technology firms. Chinese giant Huawei has been the biggest sufferer. Similarly, the dream project of Xi, the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), has come under severe strain with many countries either abandoning various projects or demanding a review of their loan agreements.
The list of Xi’s woes is growing by the day. China had become an economic superpower by the time Xi took power but his critics now blame him for leading the country to ruin due to his aggressive, expansionist policies and ambition.
After aggressive posturing following the Galwan face-off, China has now agreed to a negotiated settlement on the border so that he doesn’t lose the war against the international community as well. India and China agreed that differences should not become disputes after a telephonic discussion between the Indian National Security Advisor and the Chinese Foreign Minister.
Though China has agreed to a phased disengagement and de-escalation, there is a big trust deficit between the two armies now. The overwhelming opinion in India is that disengagement is not enough in order to end tensions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). They advocate no de-escalation until full return of status quo. While Xi would fight his own battle for survival, we have to ensure that it is not yet another Chinese trap.
History tells us that China is untrustworthy. Be it 1962, Sumdrong Chu, Depsang or Doklam. This time, too, we are not yet sure if the Chinese move is a tactical retreat in order to achieve its bigger strategic aim. Hence, India should not be lulled into complacence. History tells us that our political leadership has failed to understand the insurance provided to a nation’s growth economically and diplomatically by strong security forces. Hence, payment of annual premium to ensure that the insurance does not lapse is mandatory. The nation has to be prepared to ward off physical threats to its borders and also those in the cyber world, space and the information highways.
India must not let its guard down on the borders along the Line of Control (LoC) and the LAC. At the same time all actions taken to supplement the armoury of the three services should not be halted but put on fast track to ensure that if the dragon dares to threaten us again, it is taught a lesson forever. If needed, we should be prepared to stay put even during the harsh winters, for which logistics and catering preparations have to begin forthwith.
Economic strangulation of China should continue while at the same time encouraging friendly nations to do the same. On the diplomatic front, apart from consolidating Chinese isolation due to the pandemic, India should also consider denouncing Beijing’s One Nation Policy and leverage numerous fault lines in China by exposing its high-handedness in grabbing the territories in its periphery. Free Tibet movement should be given an impetus in India. The democratic movements in Hong Kong and Taiwan need stronger Indian support.
If Xi is able to overcome the domestic challenges he faces now, he would emerge a dictator. India, therefore, has to be prepared for a probability of reoccurrence of Chinese aggression on its borders. We have to emerge as China’s equal. Beijing will try its level best to lull us into complacency, it would be suicidal if we fall into China’s trap again.
(The author is a Jammu-based veteran, political commentator and security analyst)
