It would be a big mistake to think that Trump’s anti-China rhetoric is just an election gimmick. It is a permanent policy plank of the core team of Trump presidency to exert pressure on Beijing whether it comes to trade, technology, South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Tibet and even to China’s border conflicts with India
The new crisis that has cropped up between China and its rebel nation Taiwan highlights the “love-hate” relationship between the two. The root of the current stand-off lies in the belligerent posture maintained by the Xi Jinping regime. And the face-off has escalated with the re-election of the pro-independence Democratic People’s Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen as the President and William Lai as her Vice-President of Taiwan.
Clearly the election outcome in Taiwan is a sharp rebuke to both Beijing and the pro-China parties in the island such as the Kuomintang (KMT). Besides China’s constant threat to reunify Taiwan with the mainland and the two groups of political actors — one for pro-independence and the other for merger in China — there is an external element, the strong voices from the international community mainly led by the US.
This results into the cross-strait relations between Taipei and Beijing getting more complicated, with the latest saga of events like the island nation’s inclusion in the World Health Assembly meeting on the sidelines of the current Covid-19 crisis.
China claims Taiwan as an inseparable part of it. However, the majority of the Taiwanese reject China’s claim as bluffs and declare itself as absolutely independent from Beijing. Whenever the matter of complete independence erupts, Beijing either threatens Taipei or airs strong warnings about possible fallout of such steps by the latter. Such extreme pronouncements from the mainland are quite common. In 2017, Yin Zhuo, a Chinese Rear Admiral in the Navy, said, “If the Democratic Progressive Party (Taiwan’s ruling party) declares independence, then we must go to war without any hesitation. If they declare independence, we will use military force to bring about unification, we must be very clear about that.”
Needless to say that with the coming of the DPP to power, the centrist forces in the island and the Communist Party in China have become equally concerned about the real intentions of the Tsai regime. Thus any move that leads to complete separation of Taiwan from the sovereign territory of China would tantamount to causing war.
The major cause of irritant for China in Taiwan is the constant American interference and engagement with the island. But then there is an official act known as the “1979 Taiwan Relations Act” that provides the legal basis for the unofficial relations between the US and Taiwan. This particular Act enshrines the American commitment to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capability. Though the US officially does not support Taiwan’s independence, but the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) is solely responsible for implementing the US policy towards Taiwan.
Clearly, this is the bone of contention between the US and China. Washington has been developing close contacts with the island and its administration, but that is simply not acceptable to Beijing.
Historically, the 1979 US-People’s Republic of China (PRC) Joint Communique switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In this communique, America recognised the Government of the PRC as the sole Government of China. This again reiterates the fact that there is but one China and Taiwan is a part of China. But what has taken an ugly turn today is that only under this communiqué, the US is allowed to maintain cultural, commercial and other unofficial relations with Taiwan.
After this, what we need to know is the historic 1992 consensus that is critical in shaping and reshaping the relations between Taiwan and China. When Lee Teng-huei became the chairman of the KMT in 1988 and also became the first elected President of Taiwan in 1996 after the demise of Chiang Ching-kuo, the son of the founder of Taiwan i.e. Chiang Kai-shek. In 1988, he initiated talks with the mainland, and associations representing Beijing and Taipei met in Singapore in 1992. At the end of this historic meet, the representatives issued a document which read like this: Both sides agree that there is only one Chinese nation comprising all of mainland China, Taiwan, Penghu and the offshore islands; under this Chinese nation, there are two states and both sides agree to disagree on the definition of control of these two states. What follows from this is that basically both sides agreed that the other side existed, but they would disagree about everything else. What many of us miss in this agreement is that both sides agreed that Taiwan belonged to China, while continuing to disagree on which ‘China’, whether it is Republic of China or the Peoples Republic of China. As years passed, this came to be known as the ‘1992 Consensus’, which has been rightly rejected by the current ruling party in Taiwan.
The US, being the predominant power of the world, has a strong military presence in the Asia-Pacific, backed by its allies. Therefore any war-like situation over Taiwan would surely drag not only the US into this maelstrom, but also all its allies. And this could probably be the beginning of the Third World War. America’s growing influence in Taiwan starting from defence cooperation to people to people contact has irked China for long. When Tsai won her second term this year, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo congratulated her saying, “Her re-election by a huge margin shows that she has earned the respect, admiration and trust of the people on Taiwan. Her courage and vision in leading Taiwan’s vibrant democracy is an inspiration to the region and the world.”
With this remark coming from Washington last month, China has flashed its anger yet again for the US coming ever closer to Taiwan. In fact, the praise prompted China’s Ministry of Defense to issue a statement expressing strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to Pompeo’s remarks. At the same time, its Foreign Ministry said it was “extremely indignant” at the message and accused Washington of breaching its diplomatic commitments. And what happened in the beginning of March was another pointer to America’s deeper ties with Taiwan, especially under the Donald Trump administration. On March 4, the US House of Representatives unanimously passed the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act. What is adding more weight towards the maintenance of Taiwan’s unique identity and independence in future is the very special character of the Act. This Act aims at inducing governments that are allies of Taiwan to maintain diplomatic ties with the country and to identify those at risk of sovereign relations with it.
It also calls for the US to supplement its diplomatic presence in countries that support Taiwan and reduce its diplomatic footprint if they side with Beijing. Further, the Act would give the Secretary of State the power to expand, reduce, or terminate US aid to countries depending on whether they improve, worsen or sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan. It finally calls for increased American support for Taiwan’s participation in global affairs. Closely looked at, this directly wants to bolster Taiwan’s claim for de facto independence.
What comes from the other side of the spectrum is that Beijing adheres to its one China policy as it is. That is why China registered its utter dissatisfaction with the US by saying the latest words coming from Pompeo is hurting the “sentiments of the 1.4 billion Chinese people”.
Taiwan’s re-elected President Tsai hoped for peaceful co-existence with China, but clearly disavows “one China framework” of Beijing. She again highlighted that “Here, I want to reiterate the words ‘peace, parity, democracy, and dialogue’. We will not accept the Beijing authorities’ use of ‘one country, two systems’ to downgrade Taiwan and undermine the cross-strait status quo. We stand fast by this principle.”
These words directly indicate what Taiwan under Tsai is looking for. On her inaugural speech, she vowed to fight for Taiwan’s participation in international organisations, strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation with its allies and bolster ties with the US, Japan, Europe and other like-minded countries. This definitely is slated for a tough fight with the Xi regime in the days to come.
At the centre of the China-Taiwan bitterness lies the sheer apprehension of the Taiwanese to be under the Communist dictatorship of the mainland. In the name of people’s democracy, what has been practised in China since the days of Mao Zedong till Xi is nothing but a pseudo-socialist system. The political system that prevails today in China is pure market capitalism in the disguised form of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Majority of the Taiwanese do not want to have a governance system like that of the mainlanders. The primary detest and hatred for Chinese political system emerges from the complete absence of basic freedoms, absolute disregard for human rights, and the public display of state-sponsored violence by Beijing. Secondly, since historically and geographically, both Taiwan and China live apart, the people of Taiwan have developed a taste for independence from the beginning. However such claims though buttressed by the Taiwanese side, the mainland outrightly rejects them. For Beijing, Taiwan is a breakaway province and its reunification is a must either by peace or by force.
China’s potential danger comes from its own people. The world’s most populated nation is simply scared of its own populace. The discontents emerging from its population are not allowed to be surfaced anywhere else. It has been suppressed for decades with an iron fist by its successive communist regimes. When it comes to Taiwan, it is certain that the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue will remain intact as a permanent thaw between Washington and Beijing is far-fetched. With Xi’s war theatrics and grand propaganda of fulfilling his “China Dream”, the cross-strait relations would continue to be in focus.
Again, if Trump returns to power, it may bolster the China skeptics to continue the trade war with China. It would be a big mistake to think that Trump’s anti-China rhetoric is just an election gimmick. It is a permanent policy plank of the core team of Trump presidency to exert pressure on Beijing whether it comes to trade, technology, South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Tibet and even to China’s border conflicts with India.
Hence, the future of China-Taiwan relations is heading for a chaos. Certainly, there is no chance of an imminent war. But it serves as one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world, particularly when two nuclear giants are engaged. China’s status of being a trade behemoth mainly emboldens it to spur its campaign against major powers of the world, especially against the US. But then derailing a powerful coalition of Western forces would be extremely difficult for China at any time in future.
Instead of competing and contesting the US, China must see to it that its own territories are secured and its citizens enjoy basic human rights. Suppressing the populace back home in the mainland and particularly in Hong Kong would cost Beijing in future. Only mere force applying through the PLA would not help sustaining the Xi model of permanent presidency across all the overseas territories of China.
What seems permanent is that the ill-will between Taipei and Beijing is going to continue. Admittedly, the tension between the two has risen to an all-time high under Xi. Though Tsai is leaving after this term, the DPP and its liberation philosophy can’t be obliterated from the Taiwanese soil. With a sixth generation of leadership not coming to take over (because of Xi’s permanent presidency), it definitely adds worry to internal party consensus over Xi’s presidency after his two terms. These are serious threats to Xi and his core team. Therefore maintaining an iron fist at home and sloganeering unification over Taiwan and Hong Kong would be successful only in rhetoric.
Taiwan would remain what it is today, physically alienated, economically tied with the mainland and politically distant foes forever. So the war of words and weapons between the ROC and the PRC will nowhere head for perpetual peace.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
