Modi is in a strong position right now and it is the allies who need the party and not the BJP which needs the partners as in the past. There was a time when the saffron party was considered an untouchable but it is not so anymore

All is not well with the BJP’s allies. Murmurs of dissent from the alliance partners are getting louder, more so after the recent rift between the Shiv Sena and the BJP which led to the former quitting the NDA and finally breaking up  their alliance in Maharashtra.

  However, the BJP is not worried as it has absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, though Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose to include the representatives of the alliance partners in his Cabinet in 2014 and continued the same practice after improving the BJP’s tally in the 2019 elections. Modi is on record saying that he believes that coalitions are necessary for Indian democracy and his Government would combine national ambition and regional aspirations. Unlike the Vajpayee Government, which faced constant troubles from NDA allies, Modi has had smooth sailing for the last five years. The NDA is no longer the same as the position of the partners has weakened. In the last five years, many allies have either quit the alliance or are at odds with the Modi Government. Even those who have declared that they stand firm with the BJP — the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) — are disturbed by the treatment meted out to partners.

The BJP had five major allies. They were the SAD, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Shiv Sena, the  Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the JD-U. Out of these, the TDP left the BJP in 2018, while the Shiv Sena parted company with the NDA recently and the BJP itself dumped the Mehbooba Mufti led-PDP.

The Sena is the BJP’s only ideological ally while the Akalis are the only ones whose social base couples perfectly with the BJP’s. All of the NDA partners have been protecting their turfs in their respective States.

However, the big question is, does the BJP need allies? Of the 543 LS seats, the BJP has no need for them — except for smaller partners as in Uttar Pradesh — in 331 seats. Of the 212 seats where the BJP is dependent on allies, Bihar and Maharashtra are the only States where an ally is either the senior or equal partner.  The BJP’s decision to hang on to the allies could be because the party is yet to attain majority in the Rajya Sabha (RS). When the BJP came to power in 2014, it had 43 MPs in the Upper House out of a total strength of 245. Today, that number has almost doubled to 78. Along with its allies, the BJP has 115 MPs in the RS now. It needs the cooperation of a few smaller parties to push its agenda in the House. The NDA allies are obviously dissatisfied with the present arrangement as they feel that unlike  Vajpayee’s time, there is hardly any consultation among the partners now. They want a chairman and convener for the NDA, which used to be the case earlier. While the BJP leader was the chairman, the convener was chosen from among the partners. The Modi era has seen no such arrangement and this demand has been voiced many times. In fact, just before the current Winter Session of the Parliament, the Lok Janshakti Party’s (LJP) national president Chirag Paswan pointed out that the appointment of a convener or constitution of a coordination committee would ensure the exchange of ideas across alliance partners.

SAD leader and Rajya Sabha MP Naresh Gujral also said, “There was a time when no one was in alliance with the BJP and at that time too, the Shiv Sena and the SAD stood with them. It doesn’t mean that when you get absolute majority you start treating your allies as lesser partners.” 

The Apna Dal, JD-U and a few other allies made similar remarks. The NDA has 16 allies, of which the BJP is the only national party. The relations with the partners in the Modi era have not been that cordial. This is because of their tussle for votes. The BJP is ambitious and wants to expand while the allies want to protect their turf. This was the reason why the Shiv Sena left the alliance last month. Also Modi does not succumb to their arm twisting. 

The BJP has a new strategy to build the NDA. Modi has said that the doors of the BJP are always open for old and new partners. For instance, the TDP is said to be inching closer to the BJP again. Shiv Sena could come back any time. The BJP has also got new allies; particularly in the North-East and several more are in the making, like the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) and other smaller parties.

The BJP has expanded its base and has become the richest and biggest party, overtaking the Congress even in the RS. It has major presence in most big States, and is now eyeing the South and the North-East for expansion. The saffron party has replaced the Left in Tripura and edged the Congress out in West Bengal and Odisha as the challenger to the ruling party. Its winning spree continues as it has Governments in 17 States. Modi is in a strong position right now and it is the allies who need the party and not the BJP which needs the partners, as in the past. There was a time when the saffron party was considered an untouchable but it is not so anymore.

(The writer is a senior journalist)