Greta Thunberg’s stinging speech at the UN sounded alarm bells for the world to start acting on climate change. The crusade of the young and old has begun
A number of critical developments, pertaining to climate change, held centrestage among events marking the week that is approaching its end. The one that stood out for its importance in terms of its impact on governmental actions was the United Nations Climate Action Summit (UNCAS) in New York on September 23. There were demonstrations of youths and school children in an estimated 185 countries to accelerate the implementation of steps to combat global warming.
The first was convened by the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, to accelerate and strengthen governmental efforts to restrict the rise in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial revolution level. According to The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (The Special Report), released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on October 7, 2018, this level is likely to be reached sometime between 2030 and 2052. Perhaps more alarming is the fact that the report states that the risk of global warming and its adverse impact will not be reduced even if the increase is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Sea levels will continue to rise beyond 2100, threatening coastal ecosystems and infrastructure. Flooding, drought and extreme weather events will wreak havoc around the world. Many species will continue to be driven towards extinction and marine ecosystems could face “irreversible loss.” All this is widely known, as is what needs to be done to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial revolution level. IPCC lists a number of these, including those requiring an unprecedented reduction in fossil-fuel use by half in less than 15 years, and a total elimination of their use in 30 years.
This will require drastic changes in public policies and life-styles. There will have to be no gas or oil heating of homes, business or industry establishments; no running of vehicles by diesel or gasoline; closing down of all coal and gas power plants; and wholesale conversion of the petrochemical industry to green chemistry. Heavy industries like steel and aluminium will have to use carbon-free energy sources or employ technology to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and permanently store these.
The Special Report further states that depending on the speed at which emissions are reduced, between 0.4 and 2.7 million square miles of land may have to be converted to growing bioenergy crops and up to 3.86 million square miles of forests added by 2050. Even that, it says, will not be enough. Every pound of CO2 emitted in the last 100 years will continue to trap heat in the atmosphere for hundreds of years to come. By 2045 or 2050, there will still be excessive CO2 in the atmosphere.
The current pledges to cut CO2 emissions are so inadequate that the global warming rate is set to rise by at least three degrees Celsius by 2100, risking natural tipping points such as thawing of large areas of permafrost. President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement has made things worse. While it would become effective from 2020, steps to dismantle measures to implement the goals by the Paris Agreement, as well as other environmental regulations, have already been initiated. The most recent of these has been the reversal of automobile emission rules. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro wants to open up the Amazon to fresh commercial activity. Though China is taking steps to curb emissions, its state-owned companies want to take up coal projects at home and abroad.
An important cause of poor progress on the environment front has been the close links between corporations and political leaders. Here, two developments require attention. The first is the UN’s 195-nation climate science body’s approval on Tuesday of the IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, detailing the dire impact of global warming on oceans and earth’s frozen zones and highlighting the urgency of prioritising timely, ambitious and coordinated action to address unprecedented and enduring changes in the ocean and cryosphere. The second is UNCAS’ decision to set up a new leadership group, led by India and Sweden, to help guide the world’s heaviest greenhouse gas emitting industries towards a low carbon economy. Both measures have to be welcomed with the rider — it will all depend on the results.
Public pressure is very important. I had written in these columns under the heading “Chronicle of a death foretold” (Published in The Pioneer on October 13, 2018), “The answer clearly lies in building up pressure from below to compel Governments to take politically-difficult decisions and groups of people to abandon their opposition to measures critically important for combating global warming, which affect their individual or sectional interests. This would require a mass movement. The latter is also necessary to persuade people to give up ways of living — such as compulsive use of air conditioners — that conduce to global warming and adopt lifestyles — shifts to vegetarian diets — that hinder it.”
An early indication that a transnational mass movement demanding urgent action on global warming was in the works came in the form of the explosive youth movement started by the 16-year-old Swedish school girl, Greta Thunberg, just over 12 months ago, when people protested from the Pacific islands, through Australia, across Southeast Asia and Africa into Europe and onwards to the Americas. The next notable indication came when Wee Rebellion, a young peoples’ group combatting climate change and associated with a bigger group, Extinction Rebellion, held a “die-in” protest demonstration on April 27, 2019. Referred to in my column in The Pioneer titled, “Sign up for a new crusade” (May 2, 2019), it involved protesters in France, Australia, New Zealand, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, lying on the ground at transport hubs and cultural and shopping centres on April 27, demanding action to prevent an environmental collapse.
All earlier events were, however, overshadowed by the massive demonstrations staged in 185 countries on September 21, 2019, by youths who were joined by adults. These issued strident demands for urgent action to limit greenhouse gas emissions and stabilise the climate. The climax was Thunberg’s stinging speech at the UN on September 23, where she warned world leaders, “The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you.”
The tocsin has been sounded. The crusade of the young and old has begun.
(The writer is Consultant Editor, The Pioneer, and an author)
