Like in J&K, where the Government’s decision to split the former State into two Union Territories has led to resentment, undemocratic methods are allegedly under way in Nagaland, too
On November 20, Union Home Minister Amit Shah stated in the Rajya Sabha that after more than 100 days, the situation in Jammu & Kashmir was “normal” and that not a single bullet was fired, nor a death reported in Kashmir ever since the abrogation of Article 370. The normalcy claim was, however, debunked by a total shutdown the very next day. Shah must know that the absence of violence should not be construed as peace. Lockdown in the region has not been lifted: Political leaders and activists are still in detention and internet and cell phone services are totally or partially shut. It is, perhaps, too early to celebrate the mirage of normalcy.
Now, rewind to last month. October 31 will be remembered for more than one reason. It marked the deadline for converting the former State of Jammu & Kashmir into two Union Territories — Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh — following the abrogation of Article 370. It was also for the first time in the history of India that a full-fledged State anywhere in the country was reduced into two Union Territories, whose security would be managed centrally. Two Lieutenant Governors were sworn in on the same day as Sardar Patel’s 144th birth anniversary and Indira Gandhi’s 35th death anniversary, the latter becoming coincidental but meaningful.
October 31 was also the deadline set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the closure of the Naga identity issue, following the Nagaland Framework Agreement of August 2017. Like in Jammu & Kashmir, undemocratic methods are allegedly under way here, too, to achieve a political solution to India’s oldest and mother of all insurgencies in Nagaland.
Ironically, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) or NSCN (I-M)’s demand for a separate flag and Constitution — both done away with in Jammu & Kashmir — has created a flutter among the Northeastern States, who enjoy special status under Article 371 of the Constitution. The opening up of two fronts is never a wise option with adversaries like Pakistan and China scouting for opportunities.
Still, the Government can rejoice for achieving its long-standing nationalistic agenda of terminating Jammu & Kashmir’s special status and integrating it with the Union of India, though without pondering over the long-term consequences, as premature self congratulations indicate. The aim of the political surgery is to end terrorism, corruption and dynastic rule, which will put Jammu & Kashmir on the path of development — these ills, the Government feels, have been the result of its special status. Lockdown in Jammu & Kashmir has crossed the 100-day mark despite the international community urging us to restore human rights currently being denied to the people. The Supreme Court, too, had asked the Government to come up with a plan by November 10 to relax restrictions.
On November 14, Constitutional issues relating to Article 370 and Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, came up for a second hearing but was moved to a new date, December 14. In the first hearing on October 4, the Constitution bench had overruled a plea for an interim order, staying the implementation of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, by October 31. It said that “we can always turn the clock back.”
The independence of the judiciary against a strong executive and legislature is faced with a test. Business and trade are at a standstill. The president of the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Sheikh Ashiq, pegged the loss to the business sector at over Rs 10,000 crore. But the overall damage to Kashmir’s economy could be double this figure.
Delhi has been preparing younger, new political actors, most of who have been vetted by Shah to replace the old leadership. Prime Minister Modi praised the Block Development Council (BDC) elections as a democratic exercise though it was anything but that. Elections were held before October 31 under the Jammu and Kashmir Panchayati Raj Act and not the Indian Panchayat Act, so that polls could be indirect and “managed.” Elected Panches and Sarpanches selected one among them as the head of the block councils. Many of the elected Panches were confined to hotels in Srinagar, removed from their regions. The elections were farcical as 60 per cent of the Panches and Sarpanches’ seats were vacant and winners were elected unopposed.
All political leaders, except the BJP, were in detention. Still, it was the Independents who won the maximum seats. The aim is to create a political class owing allegiance to New Delhi, preferably from Jammu. With the Legislative Council abolished, Legislative Assembly seats have been increased effectively from 83 to 90, excluding 24 for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. It is still not clear as to who will do the delimitation: The Election Commission of India or a delimitation panel. Any tinkering with the demography will be outright dangerous.
The new Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, GC Murmu, has said that elections will be held soon. Managing Srinagar by remote control from New Delhi will not be easy given the decades of trauma generations of Kashmiris have suffered. A 11-member team, comprising mental health specialists, which visited Kashmir after scrapping of the special status, reported “marked increase in psychological distress in the region.” A report titled, Imprisoned Resistance: 5th August and its aftermath, was released in New Delhi last week. No meaningful political outreach will be feasible when Kashmiris are stripped off their identity. Their hearts and minds, won over the years by the Army, are now largely lost.
Three security issues will continue to cross-fertilise: Existing alienation, which has turned into resentment; mounting radicalisation and Islamisation; and home-grown and cross-border terrorism dormant at present due to the lockdown. Kashmiris are less angry about deprivation of the special status than their land being downgraded to a Union Territory. The insult to their identity is palpable and will remain even when statehood is restored. The largely spontaneous civil disobedience movement will breed more radicalised youth, who will take to street violence and join the ranks of insurgency. The contours of a new insurgency will likely appear by next summer. Unlike in the past, Kashmiris will more readily support insurgents than the security forces.
In the short-term, once the passes close and snow sets in the hinterland by the end of November, insurgents will be forced to take refuge in villages and towns. The pause in security forces’ operations due to the lockdown has undermined the counter-insurgency and intelligence grids considerably.
Troop density in the Valley is at the highest levels since “Operation Parakram” (2001-02) when nearly 2,000 terrorists were killed. Pakistan will remain constrained due to the fear of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which will review its actions in blocking terrorist financing in February 2020. Pakistan has not launched a single big attack after Pulwama, in fact, after Mumbai. But the 250-300 terrorists in the Valley, radicalised youth and overground workers will keep the security forces busy for long. Disaffected Kashmiris are hurt when Modi brags at home and abroad about having abrogated their special status while chasing the mirage of turning Kashmir into a land of milk and honey. “We have tried other ways and failed… so let’s give abrogation of Article 370 a chance”, is the contention.
Emotional integration of Kashmir has been put off even as North-eastern States, enjoying special status, are getting restive. Shah must get real.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander IPKF South, Sri Lanka and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff.)
