Given their recent experiment during the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, where the SP and BSP registered a combined victory, they are confident that their alliance at the national level will be a success. But both elections are different and the deal needs some fine-tuning to emerge victorious
After the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, the then Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Kalyan Singh, resigned because his Government failed to protect the disputed structure despite having given an assurance in the Supreme Court that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Government will ensure protection and security of the mosque. This incident led to another bout of State elections in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP was confident that it would return to power, riding high on the Hindutva wave that swept the country then. Kalyan Singh emerged as the Hindu mascot and the 1993 election was contested around him and Ram Mandir.
Amid this political cacophony, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) founder Kanshi Ram and the then Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav joined hands. The BSP and SP contested the 1993 Uttar Pradesh elections as allies. Uttar Pradesh once again became a crucible of political experiments, to see whether ‘caste’ could get the better of religion, because in local parlance, it is believed that religion is the glue that binds all castes. The result was an eye-opener for all. The alliance decimated the BJP and its count came down from 221 to 108 and Mulayam Singh Yadav became the Chief Minister.
In the last 26 years, much water has flown down the Gomati river and the BSP and SP have once again decided to join hands. This time, the mantle is in the hands of BSP chief Mayawati and SP president Akhilesh Yadav. On January 12, they made the silhouette of this alliance public with both parties deciding to contest 38 seats each and leaving four seats for other parties, which include Amethi and Rae Bareli for the Congress and two others for the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Later, developments showed that SP was ready to give another seat to RLD from its quota. So it will contest on 37 seats.
Plain arithmetic shows that the alliance between the SP and BSP can give jitters to the BJP because in 2014, the saffron party and its allies got 43 per cent votes, which translated into 73 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The party won 71 seats on its own — the highest tally in Uttar Pradesh — and its allay, Apna Dal, won two seats. On the other hand, SP got 22 per cent votes and BSP, 20 per cent, while the Congress secured six per cent. SP won five seats — all of them in the so-called Yadav belt, while the Congress was victorious only in Amethi and Rae Bareli which are the party’s pocket boroughs.
Interestingly, all these parties contested elections against each other. Moreover, in 2014, the then Congress-led UPA Government, which was supported by SP and BSP from the outside, was facing massive corruption charges and the mood of the people was against the ruling regime.
In this scenario, the BJP played a shrewd political card by projecting the then Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi, as the party’s prime ministerial candidate. The BJP sold the Gujarat model as a precursor of development and promised achche din to the people. Just four to five months before the 2014 elections, signals were clear that the Congress would not return to power and this time, Narendra Modi would head the country. Even in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP gained ground after the Muzaffarnagar pogrom, which divided western Uttar Pradesh along sharp religious lines. Reports of exodus of Hindu families from Kairana and Shamli further added fuel to an already communally surcharged atmosphere.
The situation in 2019, however, is different. The BJP is now facing anti-incumbency. Decisions like demonetisation and the haphazard implementation of the Goods and Service Tax have made the BJP Government unpopular among the masses. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy in its recent study said that over 35 lakh people have lost jobs because of demonetisation when high-value currency notes were culled in one go in 2016. Issues of lack of employment and alleged corruption in the Rafale deal gave the Opposition parties a hammer to beat the Modi Government. To top it all, the agrarian crisis, including non-payment of cane arrears and stray cattle menace in Uttar Pradesh, has made the BJP unpopular among the masses.
In this scenario, the SP-BSP alliance seems to be a potent combination to take on the BJP. Even as the Congress will not be a part of the alliance, and its leaders have declared that the grand old party will contest the election separately, theoretically, it seems that the SP-BSP alliance will sweep the 2019 Lok Sabha election and will win around 50 seats out of a possible 80 in Uttar Pradesh. Yogendra Yadav, the psephologist, has claimed that if the BJP, BSP and SP are able to retain their vote percentage of 43 per cent, 20 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively (which these parties got in 2014), the BJP will win 41 seats, which is 32 less than its tally of 2014, while the BSP-SP alliance will get 41 seats, up by 36 seats, compared to the last elections.
But then, elections are not a game of psephology. They are based on permutations and combinations that vary every passing day and can impact the result, which can be unexpected sometimes. A sitting law-maker of the SP said that on the face of it, party workers are happy that the SP entered into an alliance with the BSP but results cannot be depicted merely on the basis of the 2014 election. “In 2014, there was a wave in favour of Modi but in 2019, there is no wave either for or against the BJP. People are angry with the ruling party but that anger needs to be transformed into votes. This is a tedious job and needs to be meticulously worked on,” he said.
What has given the Opposition confidence is the results to by-elections in various States. In Uttar Pradesh itself, a united Opposition defeated the BJP in Gorakhpur, Phuplur and Kairana parliamentary elections. Gorakhpur was said to be the BJP’s citadel, where Chief Minister Adityanath Yogi had won five times in a row. Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, too, won the Phulpur, constituency in 2014. Both leaders vacated their seats after they joined the State Cabinet. Kairana in western Uttar Pradesh was represented by BJP stalwart Hukum Singh. In all these seats, SP, BSP and RLD contested unitedly.
But in politics, people say, by-elections cannot predict the outcome of the general elections. This holds true for the 2019 elections too. One thing is clear that in Uttar Pradesh, where caste plays an important role, selection of candidates will be of paramount importance. A leader, who is popular and is working with the people, can turn the situation in favour of the alliance. But if a candidate is given a ticket merely because he is rich but has no roots among the masses, could prove catastrophic for the alliance.
Second, merely announcing alliance will not unite caste base of both parties at the ground level. Both leaders need to chalk out a strategy to bring a thaw between intermediary castes like the Yadavs, Kurmis and Dalits, who otherwise are always at loggerheads at the village level. If the sense of unity does not percolate down, it will be a requiem for the alliance.
(The writer is Executive Director (News) with Lucknow edition of The Pioneer).
