In many ways the proposed grand alliance involving the NCP-Congress alliance on the one hand and the Shiv Sena on the other in Maharashtra may have reminded some people — at least those who care to be interested in history — of the infamous (but woefully short-lived) Hitler-Stalin pact of 1939. That pact allowed Germany and the Soviet Union to carve up Poland between themselves and subsequently allowed Hitler the elbow room to launch his blitzkrieg attack on France, Holland and Belgium.
Whether Sharad Pawar’s deft negotiations with Sonia Gandhi to bring the Congress round to accepting a Shiv Sena representative, perhaps Uddhav Thackeray, as Chief Minister of Maharashtra was based on some diabolical political strategy will never be known. There will be speculation that a cash-strapped Congress, having only recently lost control over Karnataka, was only too keen to have a bite of the big pie in Maharashtra — particularly Mumbai. The Congress may have calculated, as some say Stalin did, that replenishing its political and financial capacity in the short-term was imperative to sustain a long battle against the BJP nationally.
Whatever the reality, the BJP was unlikely to sit idle. It is almost certain that accusing fingers are going to be pointed at Union Home Minister Amit Shah for triggering the revolt of Ajit Pawar in the NCP. In short, while Sharad Pawar was winning high praise for taking full advantage of a messy situation resulting from the Shiv Sena breaking the saffron alliance, his own home front turned out to be vulnerable to BJP inducements. Maybe, just maybe, Sharad Pawar’s nephew was attracted to the idea of cutting a deal with the Centre over some of his outstanding issues relating to earlier use of Government resources. Maybe he felt that he, rather than Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule should be the designated heir to Pawar’s political empire. The possibilities are endless.
However, with Ajit Pawar throwing a spanner in the works and declaring his support to the BJP, it is almost certain that the process of realignment will not stop at a party that has made a virtue of its electoral flexibility. The process of re-examining political options is certain to be felt inside the Shiv Sena. In a sense Uddhav Thackeray may have anticipated this when he summoned all his MLAs to camp, along with their Aadhar cards and change of clothes, in a Mumbai hotel till the Shiv Sena Minister was sworn in. However, in this age of instant information, it is impossible to keep MLAs in a padded cell, detached from the real world. It is almost certain that there are many MLAs — how many is not known — that feel that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was ‘natural’ and that allying with the Congress is ‘unnatural.’ Whether they will reveal their hand in due course is anybody’s guess. All that can be said at this juncture is that Maharashtra seems headed to a spell of political churning. All the parties, with the possible exception of the BJP seem to be have been affected.
I don’t think it is possible at this stage to identify the possible winners and losers or even if the turbulence is going to be restricted to Maharashtra. First, Devendra Fadnavis has to prove his majority. This may be possible but it will be murky. Secondly, a furious Shiv Sena will take to the streets, particularly in Mumbai. That will have economic consequences for the whole country. Thirdly, the Congress will have to face up to the internal consequences of allying with the Shiv Sena. This may not be as inconsequential as the Congress initially believed. It has reopened the communal-secular debate inside the party. That cannot be too beneficial. Finally, there is a perception all cost to the BJP. Will its determination to win power at all costs prove detrimental to its larger prospects? How will it affect the ongoing session of Parliament, especially with the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill on the anvil? There are questions galore.
On the other hand, it is entirely possible the BJP will somehow or the other manage this difficult situation in Maharashtra and come out triumphant. If audacity is what it takes to succeed in politics, the BJP has set very exacting standards.
