Approximately 73 years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the world finds itself in similar straightened circumstances as the US once again puts into motion steps to curb the rise of another Asian power, China. We must be prepared to tackle the fallout

American writer and philosopher George Santayana famously said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” We would do well to remember that on December 7, 1941, the Japanese fleet, under Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, launched its devastating attack on the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbour, leaving it all but crippled.

While to the uninitiated it may well have seemed the first act of the tragedy that would ultimately leave Hiroshima and Nagasaki devastated by fireballs, millions dead and Japan utterly defeated, but in truth, it was only a denouement of events set in motion nearly a century before.

Incidentally, while the attack may have surprised the Pacific Fleet, Washington had broken the Japanese code and was fully conversant with Yamamoto’s operational plans. Whether it was sheer incompetence or a deliberate strategy to not inform the Pacific Fleet of the impending attack, to arouse public opinion against Japanese “perfidy” and allow Franklin D Roosevelt to enter the war, still remains a matter of conjecture and debate.

Of course, the delay on the part of the Japanese Ambassador to Washington to convey his Government’s decision to declare war on the US, inadvertently delivered after the attack, obviously played into Roosevelt’s hands as well. However, what is now well known is that the Japanese Government was fully aware — even before the first shots had been fired — that it was a conflict they could never win.

Yet, they had little choice but to take on the might of the US if they were not to be economically and militarily strangled and denied their rightful place in the world. Ninety years before, on July 8, 1853, Commodore Matthew Perry of the US Navy, commanding a squadron of two steamers and two sailing vessels, sailed into Tokyo harbour aboard the frigate Susquehanna and imposed an unequal treaty on the Japanese, making full use of the technological superiority that his force enjoyed. A supposedly powerful Japan was forced to retreat.

From this humiliating event emerged the understanding that if they were to avoid the fate that had befallen a weak and divided China, they would have to copy the Western imperialist powers. The year 1868 saw the start of the reformist movement — the Meiji Restoration — which turned feudal Japan into a modern industrialist nation, best exemplified by its defeat of Russia in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 that gave it control over parts of Manchuria.

Subsequently siding with allies in the World War-I allowed it to take control of Germany’s colonies in the Pacific. In effect, it emerged as another great colonial power engaged in competition for resources with the British, Dutch and the US, something these powers did not take kindly to, even refusing to treat it as an equal in the League of Nations.

It was only a matter of time before an expansionist Japan found itself in the cross hairs of the US. In 1937, following the Marco Polo Bridge incident, Japan found itself bogged down in a war with China that put extreme strains on its military capabilities and economic resources. The Nanjing Massacre, the occupation of Korea and a series of other incidents led to the imposition of an economic and oil blockade on Japan by the US that finally forced the former to confront the US at Pearl Harbour and take on the British in the Malayan Peninsula in a desperate bid for oil, rubber, tin and other metals required to keep its factories going.

Today, approximately 73 years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the world finds itself in similar straightened circumstances as the US once again puts into motion steps to curb the rise of another Asian power, the People’s Republic of China.

The meteoric rise of US President Donald Trump, his ‘America First’ ideology and the focus on trade restrictions to curb the exponential growth of the Chinese economy are no different from the embargoes we saw on the Japanese those many years ago.

The ratcheting up of tensions in the Persian Gulf from where the Chinese receive most of their oil, is obviously no coincidence and while some may see the US’ actions directed at Iran, one cannot rule out the fact that the ultimate target may well be the Chinese.

Many analysts believe that a miscalculation in the Gulf may well ignite an unwanted conflict between Iran and the US. If so, while extremely serious, it would only be one aspect of a larger global problem. What should be of even  graver concern is the possibility that American attempts to stymie Chinese growth may lead to conflict if China finds itself economically cornered and responds much in the manner that the Japanese did in 1941, preemptively if it feels it is being cornered.

Incidentally, a scenario, which could apply to Iran, in its current standoff with the US as well. In such a situation, where would our best interests lie? Would we want to be at the forefront of the confrontation as a close US ally or would we prefer to keep our powder dry?

Whatever be our choice, one thing is very clear, we better initiate substantive actions to revamp and reorganise our military if we wish to be ready to tackle the fall out of the ongoing US-China tussle for power. This is an issue that diplomacy alone cannot solve and we would do well to remember Mao Zedong’s prophetic words that “power flows out of the barrel of the gun.”

(The writer, a military veteran, a consultant with the Observer Research Foundation and a Senior Visiting Fellow with The Peninsula Foundation, Chennai)