The listing of Masood Azhar as a global terrorist is a notable diplomatic victory for India. But the coming months are going to be very critical for us not only diplomatically but militarily as well
India has secured a big diplomatic victory with the listing of Masood Azhar, Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) chief, as a global terrorist by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) after China decided to lift its earlier imposed technical hold. It has been a long struggle for the Indian diplomatic corps since the issue had been hanging fire for almost a decade now. Incidentally, the JeM had already been listed as a global terror organisation by the UN since 2002. However, Azhar continued to avoid the listing due to Chinese patronage. The decision from the UN Security Council’s 1267 Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee came after China lifted its technical hold, imposed on March 13, on a proposal made by the US, the UK and France to this end. Even before that, China, a permanent member of the UNSC, had been blocking India’s attempts to secure designation of Azhar for almost a decade.
Certainly, India’s consistency has paid off. It was not an easy task to propel China to change its mind, especially when it had clarified after the Brics summit declaration that it was “for banning terrorist organisations but not individuals.” China still had three months to lift the technical hold but stretched it to the last limit. Now that it has given in, it is definitely a victory of the Modi Government. The declaration, coming as it does in the midst of the electoral battle, indicates the respect the Chinese leadership has for the current leadership in India with Modi at the helm. It is a spin-off of the Wuhan spirit and definitely a win-win for India.
In diplomacy, there are no clear cut winners or losers until a decisive victory in a war has already declared the winners. In the instant case, both India and China had been pursuing their national interests. The latter was also treading the path very carefully. Chinese national interests were under attack from America as a result of the ongoing trade war between the two countries that had begun much before Pulwama. China’s GDP was on a decline. Many companies are contemplating shifting their manufacturing units to India. China, which considers itself as an emerging global power, can ill-afford a declining economy. Also, China’s image as a responsible member of the global community was being dented due to its continuous support to Azhar, thus labelling it as pro-terror. The recently held second summit of the Belt Road Initiatives (BRI) also forced China for a re-think. India’s persistence to stay away from the initiative and not very encouraging response from those who attended, including Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, made the Chinese think-tank a bit nervous.
China was feeling the heat of international isolation with majority nations not aligning with it in the matter of terrorism. America’s threat to take the matter to the UNSC further weakened China’s insistence because it was hardly left with any allies. The fear of losing a huge market like India — one of the major trading partners of China — also weighed heavily in the minds of the Chinese leadership. It was, therefore, perceived by China that in its national interest, it can no longer afford to be seen as a pro-terrorist nation. However, it also did not want to offend its only ally, Pakistan, with whom it pronounces its friendship as stronger than the Himalayas. Hence, China ensured that no reference was made to Kashmir and Pulwama, a face-saving gimmick for Pakistan, in the Sanction Committee’s declaration listing Azhar as global terrorist.
“On this listing issue, China has been communicating with relevant parties in a constructive and responsible fashion. Recently, relevant countries revised and re-submitted the materials for the listing proposal to the 1267 Committee. After careful study of the revised materials and taking into consideration the opinions of relevant parties concerned, China does not have objection to the listing proposal,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a press statement.
“The proper settlement of the above-mentioned issue again shows that in international counter-terrorism cooperation, we have to uphold the rules and procedures of relevant UN body, follow the principle of mutual respect, resolve differences and build consensus through dialogue, and prevent politicising technical issues,” he added.
In his statement, Geng pointed out that Pakistan has made “enormous contributions to fighting terrorism”, which should be recognised by the international fraternity. Thus, it is a win-win situation as far as China is concerned. It is a win-win situation for France, the US, Britain and other members of 1267 Committee as well.
Pakistan is also claiming a win-win situation on the pretext that no mention has been made of Kashmir and Pulwama since India has been blaming Azhar as the mastermind and JeM as the executor of the dastardly Pulwama terror attack. Let Pakistan rejoice but the bare fact remains that it has been recognised and designated globally as a fountainhead of terror. The Damocles’ Sword in the form of Financial Action Task Force (FATF) continues to hang on its head. A fragile and failing economy is an issue, which cannot allow this rejoicing to be a long lasting pleasant experience. India should also not particularly worry about the fine print because the intent was to have Azhar declared as a global terrorist and that has been achieved. With the JeM already on the ban list and now its chief also meeting the same fate, it would be a Herculean task for Pakistan to defy the Sanctions. It will have to act, and act swiftly.
A word of caution: The deep state in Pakistan has mastered the art of circumventing international sanctions as is evident from its past behaviour. The banned organisations appear in a new avtar or with a different name and their leaders assume charge again though ostensibly of a different outfit, generally portrayed as a philanthropic organisation. But the watchful eye of FATF may make the task difficult for Pakistan this time.
Undoubtedly, India has secured a huge diplomatic victory but this should not be the end. India has to tread its path carefully to ensure that this victory is not turned into defeat through a Sino-Pakistan collusion. India also has to be prepared for the immediate consequences of this decision. The JeM sympathisers in Kashmir may carry out a sensational attack to show their solidarity with Azhar and as a protest to his listing. Pakistan is already singing a different tune. It says that by not naming Kashmir and Pulwama in the declaration, the global community has accepted their contention that what is happening inside Kashmir is an internal resistance movement. Indirectly, both China and Pakistan have continued to support their consistent policy of “good” and “bad” terrorists. Pakistan has also made its intentions clear that there would be no laxity as far as Kashmir is concerned and that it will continue to follow its policy of “thousand cuts.”
India will have to ensure that Pakistan and China are compelled to give up their policy of classifying terrorists to suit their convenience. As far as China is concerned, India has to keep its counter-narrative active and play the ‘Tibet card’ tactfully. In view of the ensuing summer, when passes in the Himalayas are open, India will have to be vigilant and guard against any Sino-Pakistan collusion militarily. After the Balakot strikes, both India and Pakistan continue to maintain the stand-off. It is the conventional edge that the Indian armed forces enjoy over their counterparts in Pakistan and the international pressure that has kept Pakistan reined in so far. A misadventure from Pakistan to avenge Balakot with the collusion of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is a possibility that cannot be ruled out straight way. A lot would also depend on the electoral results on May 23 that would determine the new Government in New Delhi. Before resorting to any misadventure, Pakistan will like to determine the thresholds of the new regime. In a nutshell, the coming months are going to be very critical for India not only diplomatically but militarily as well.
Pakistan’s mindset against India will change only if its Army changes its attitude towards India and stops projecting us as a quintessential threat. That can only happen when Pakistan’s economy cannot be saved from a collapse. Fear of FATF sanctions may also, to some extent, force the Army to concede a bit. When IMF’s bailout package becomes almost a certainty, the Pakistan Army will have no option but to relent. Islamabad will be forced to denounce terrorism as the instrument of state policy.
India has a long haul ahead. It has to ensure that it further tightens its grip against Pakistan through diplomatic, economic and military means. It also has to ensure that the global watch over Pakistan does not slacken. With all indications that Modi may return to power and India continuing with its tough policy against Pakistan, there is a hope that coming years may see a decline in cross-border terrorism. However, the universal fight against global jihadi terror will continue relentlessly.
(The writer is a Jammu-based political commentator, columnist and strategic analyst)
