Two crucial developments on the ground will give fresh food for thought to political crystal gazers about the direction the battle for Bihar is taking. The first is the shift of a sizeable section of Koeri voters to the Nitish-led Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) and the second is the notable movement of the Mallah voters towards the BJP-led NDA.
Since there were a few Mallah voters in the 49 Assembly segments that went to poll in the first phase, the Mahagathbandhan is expected to take a major lead in that round, due to the major tilt of Koeri voters towards it.
These two developments are a pointer to the fact that in staggered elections, caste churning may go on till the last lap. Such changes would compel the rival formations to watch every signal emerging from the non-committed voters.
In a closely-contested poll, the unexpected tilt of a caste with even two per cent presence can change the entire political calculations.
That’s the reason why Prime Minister Narendra Modi has belatedly tried to dispel the fear among Dalits and OBCs that the BJP was conspiring to take away from them the benefit of reservations, a rhetoric that has been the sustained poll pitch of lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar.
Modi must have got the feedback that the quota row could upset the chemistry that the BJP tried to establish among the upper castes, Dalits and non-Yadavs, non-Kurmi OBCs. The buzz about the shift of Koeri votes in Central Bihar must have alarmed the BJP leadership.
At six to seven per cent of the population, numerically the Koeris (known as Dangi in Central Bihar and Kuswahas in North Bihar) are the second-most powerful OBCs after Yadavs. They rallied around Upendra Kushwaha in the lok Sabha polls. But there are clear signs that lalu Prasad’s attempt to turn this election into a war between upper castes and the rest is polarising the OBCs in a big way.
There are more reasons for the possible shift of the Koeris towards the “grand alliance.” Kurmis, (Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s caste men) and Koeris have shared a deep bond for decades. Nitish was the unquestionable leader of both the castes till Kushwahas began to assert their own identity. The final parting between the Kurmis and Kushwahas took place when Upendra Kushwaha formed his own outfit Rashtriya loktantrik Samata Party.
But Nitish has been able to re-establish the bond with the Kushwahas by fielding as many as 30 of them as Mahagathbandhan candidates. This is far more than the number of Kushwaha candidates fielded by the NDA.
“We know that Upendra Kushwaha is not going to be the Chief Minister. Nitish Kumar has been our leader in the past. We are not going to dump him to make a Chief Minister of another caste,” said Ajay Kushwaha at a tea shop in Hajipur.
Dangis in Central Bihar, be it in Bodh Gaya or Aurangabad, echoed similar sentiments. The buzz is more strident in the rural belt where lalu Yadav’s battle cry for ushering in Mandal Raj II is resonating much more loudly than Narendra Modi’s call for development.
“The OBC voters are getting polarized as some are rallying behind the grand alliance. lalu has made us realise that it is a question of our pride and survival,” said Rameshwar Prasad, an unemployed youth, in Amba in Aurangabad.
On the other hand, Mallahs and Sahni, who eke out a living by engaging in riverine activities, are moving towards the BJP in a big way. The two castes come under the category of the Extremely Backward Castes and were once led by Captain Jai Narain Nishad. Now, his son Ajay Nishad is a prominent Nishad leader of North Bihar.
The BJP’s success in wooing back Mukesh Sahni, known as the son of Mallah, is also expected to polarise the Mallah voters in favour of the NDA. Mukesh, a well-known artist of the region, first pledged his support to the grand alliance and within days shifted his loyalty to the NDA. He is a popular man in his community and is capable of influencing a large chunk of voters.
“Mallahs and Sahnis are going to back the BJP till the last person,” said Rupam Sahni, a first-time voter, in Hajipur. Similar sentiments among Mallah and Sahni voters were heard across the region. With the heavy concentration of votes in North Bihar, the Mallahs and Sahnis could influence the outcome in at least 36 seats.
With lalu Prasad’s call for unity of the backward castes resonating across the State, the NDA will have to go all out in wooing any vulnerable pocket to offset the favourable caste polarisation for the ‘grand alliance’.
