CONSTITUENCY-WISE ANAlYSIS

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CONSTITUENCY-WISE ANAlYSIS

Wednesday, 09 April 2014 | PNS

1. Ambala:Dalits comprise over 7 lakh voters, Punjabi 2.25 lakh and Brahmin 1.38 lakh in the constituency which borders Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh. After sitting MP Selja got a Rajya Sabha nomination and left the battle before it began, Congress has fielded Raj Kumar Valmiki a political novice. He is pitted against BJP veteran and former MP Rattan lal Kataria. little known Kusum Sherwal has been fielded by INlD which many say is an attempt to indirectly help the BJP. Combined with Modi wave, BJP has a clear advantage here.

2. Karnal:No particular community has a sway here as Dalits comprise 2.5 lakh voters, Punjabi also 2.5 lakh and Jat 1.87. Two-time MP Arvind Sharma (2004 and 2009) would be contesting for the third time against Ashwini Chopra of BJP, Jaswinder Sandhu of INlD and Maratha Virendra Verma of BSP. Initially, Haryana Janhit Congress was allotted the seat under its poll pact with BJP and it wanted to field Venod Sharma. When his entry was blocked in the HJC by Sushma Swaraj, Kuldeep Bishnoi fielded his brother Chander Mohan. The candidature was withdrawn after a controversy broke out and the seat was then given to BJP as it fielded Chopra, the newspaper baron. Only a Modi wave could see Chopra through in a tough battle.

3.Bhiwani-Mahendragarh: This is a typical rural constituency with Jat voters around 3.75 lakh and Ahir voters around 2.90 lakh along with 1.44 lakh Brahmins. Sitting MP Shruti Chaudhry, the grand daughter of architect of modern Haryana, Chaudhary Bansi lal, faces Dharambir Singh of the BJP who switched sides just a day before he got the BJP ticket. Both are Jats. INlD candidate and sitting MlA Rao Bahadur Singh, an Ahir may get advantage in case Jat votes are divided.

4.Kurukshetra:It was here that the Mahabharata took place but this time the battle is for lok Sabha. Dalit voters are 3.10 lakh, Jat 2.46 lakh, Punjabi 2.40 and Brahmin 1.24. Two-time MP Naveen Jindal who won in 2004 and 2009 is facing Raj Kumar Saini of BJP and Balbir Saini of INlD. Coal Block allocation scam is an issue which the opponents of Jindal are using against him.

5. Sonepat:Bordering Delhi, this is a typical Jat dominated seat with the community comprising almost 5 lakh voters. There are around 1.5 lakh Brahmins as well here. Sitting Congress MP Jitender Malik refused to contest fearing anti-incumbency, forcing the party to choose sitting MlA from Gohana Jagbir Malik. His opponents are Ramesh Kaushik of the BJP, a Brahmin, who was earlier two-term MlA of the Congress. Padam Singh Dahiya is the INlD candidate. Pradeep Sangwan, son of BJP veteran and three-term former MP, Kishan Sangwan has revolted after a Congress import was given BJP ticket and is expected to divide the saffron votes. AAP candidate Jai Singh Bawala is also a Jat. Wrong ticket selection may hurt the BJP.

6. Faridabad:Another seat on the Delhi border, where Jats comprise 2.16 lakh voters, Gujjar 1.84, Brahmin 1.17 and Punjabi 1.10. Sitting MP Avtar Singh Bhadana of Congress, who has won three time faces sitting MlA Krishan Pal Gujjar of BJP and RK Anand of INlD. Anti-incumbency is staring at Bhadana even though he is a veteran and this could give the BJP candidate an outside chance. The INlD candidate is an outsider, a prominent Delhi lawyer, earlier in the Congress.

7. Sirsa:This is a Dalit dominated seat with 7.2 lakh voters from the community, followed by Punjabi 3.48 and Jat 3.37 lakh. Sitting MP and Haryana Congress president Ashok Tanwar, a close confidante of Rahul Gandhi, faces party hopper Sushil Indora, now in HJC and Charanjit Singh Rori of INlD. Gandhi addressed a meeting here in support of Tanwar, who also headed the NSUI and IYC earlier. Indora is giving a tough fight to Tanwar who wanted to shift to Ambala initially.

8. Rohtak:This is one constituency where the Jat community has a complete sway with 6.25 lakh voters and Congress is almost sure to win it again. Two-time MP Deepender Hooda, though recuperating in Delhi due to spinal injury, would be contesting for the third time from the family bastion. In 2009 he won by 4.45 lakh votes, the highest in the state, the BJP has put Om Prakash Dhankar, president of its Kisan Morcha, INlD Shamsher Kharkada and AAP Naveen Jaihind. Deepender may not have much of a fight here.

9. Hisar:The only seat where the sitting MP is not from Congress. Kuldeep Bishnoi of HJC won the seat in a byelection after his father died. It is a Jat dominated constituency with around 5 lakh voters, followed by dalits 3.25 lakh.  Bishnoi of HJC, a non-Jat, is pitted against Dushyant Chautala of INlD, fourth generation of Devi lal’s family and Sampat Singh of Congress. Yudhvir Khyalia a former IAS officer is AAP candidate from the home town of Kejriwal. Bishnoi is banking on polarisation of non-Jat votes but here Chautala too is quite strong. A tough battle ahead.

10. Gurgaon:Dominated by Ahir and Meo Muslim voters, both around 2.75 lakh each, sitting MP Rao Inderjit Singh of Congress changed sides on the eve of elections and is now the BJP candidate.  Rao Inderjit has won three times from here and was a minister in UPA I. He faces Rao Dharampal, sitting MlA of the Congress, Zakir Hussain of INlD and the intellectual face of AAP Yogendra Yadav. Inderjeet enjoys a distinct edge.

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