Not only does the democratic transition of power augur well for Pakistan, which has spent far too many decades searching for the democratic route to political stability, it also means good news for the world
The Army had hoped that Imran Khan would lead his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, to victory and America had braced itself for such an outcome of the recent election in Pakistan. But Allah had planned otherwise. It is Nawaz Sharif, the old-fashioned politician from Punjab Province, cunning and crafty in equal measure and a veteran of many political battles, who has trounced his rivals to reclaim the masnad of Islamabad from which General Pervez Musharraf had rudely unseated him.
There is no denying the fact that Kerry Packer’s poster boy who came to symbolise all that was exciting about night cricket — ‘Big Boys Play At Night’ T-shirts were a rage after Imran Khan began sporting one — was widely expected to win the poll. Young and first-time voters were rooting for him and the turnout at his public rallies was invariably huge.
On the flip side, there was —and remains — understandable discomfort, both within and outside Pakistan, about the company he kept — and keeps — as also his soft stand on Islamic fanatics. This would explain why the Generals of Rawalpindi were hopeful of a PTI victory.
It would, however, be wrong to suggest that the enthusiasm he generated was on account of this alone. There is something refreshing about Imran Khan, and in a country where politicians are perceived as vile and cynical, he was seen as clean and earnest. He connected with the youth like none of the establishment politicians did.
That was before the votes were cast and counted. The results have reaffirmed that conventional wisdom is not without merit: People prefer tried and tested politicians and parties over Johnny Come latelies. Hence, Nawaz Sharif and his faction of Pakistan Muslim league won the race by a yard and more, leaving his rivals way behind. The Pakistan Peoples Party has been virtually washed out by the tide of support for Nawaz Sharif while Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has performed way below popular expectation.
These details apart, perhaps the bigger winner than Nawaz Sharif in this election is the idea of democracy and the craving for political liberty. For the first time Pakistan has witnessed a democratic transition of power from one civilian Government to another. Yes, it was a bloody election marred by targeted assassinations, mass killings and abduction of candidates and campaigners. But neither the politicians nor political parties were deterred. More important, Pakistanis turned out in large numbers on voting day.
The importance of this democratic transition of power from one civilian Government to another cannot be over-emphasised. Not only does this augur well for Pakistan, which has spent far too many decades searching for the democratic route to political stability and economic prosperity, but it means good news for India and the world. It’s far easier to deal with a democracy than with a military dictatorship.
What makes the good news better is Nawaz Sharif’s repeatedly stated intention to improve Pakistan’s relations with India — “I want to pick up the thread from where I left it in 1999” — and remove the bitterness that has crept into its relationship with America. A client state, Nawaz Sharif would readily agree, cannot afford to cock a snook at its benefactor; this is all the more true when the client state is in a mess and one step away from turning into a failed state.
There are two other reasons why Nawaz Sharif’s return to Islamabad should fetch cheers. First, he remains committed to turning around the Pakistani economy and focussed on development goals. A prosperous Pakistan could yet lead to the eclipse and exit of Islamist fanatics who prey on the poor who in Pakistan tend to be desperately poor. Development is the best antidote to warped ideologies.
Second, Nawaz Sharif detests and despises the Generals in khaki who use the state and its resources to promote their own interests and maintain their stranglehold over the political establishment. The military-ISI-jihadi nexus never held any appeal for Nawaz Sharif or else he would not have had a bitter fall-out with Gen Musharraf.
Seen from India’s perspective, given the downward spiral in our relationship with Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif is the best bet — far better than the unreliable and untrustworthy leadership of the PPP. President Asif Ali Zardari was never his own man; the Prime Ministers who headed the PPP Government were comfortable with the idea of being putty in the hands of the Army and letting the ISI run amok.
There are imponderables that cannot be discounted or ignored. The most worrisome is who gets to replace General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani as Army chief. There are Musharraf loyalists who aspire for this job; there are others who are not repulsed by the thought of sharing their beds with the
Taliban, both the Pakistani and the Afghan variety. Nawaz Sharif has been bold enough to assert that the Army shall be under civilian control, but during his last stint as Prime Minister, it didn’t quite turn out that way.
The other imponderable is what happens after the US pulls its troops out of Afghanistan in 2014. Will we witness a recrudescence of the Pakistani Army’s disastrous strategic depth policyIJ Will a puppet criminal regime similar to that headed by Mullah Omar be installed in KabulIJ America, especially with Barack Obama as President, would not mind that happening if it ensures indirect American control over Afghan affairs.
Interesting times lie ahead. It would be in India’s national and strategic interest to wait and watch rather than indulge in short-sighted responses. There is no hurry. Not the least because we too are preparing for a democratic transition of power and the incumbent regime shouldn’t be setting the agenda for the next Government in New Delhi.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Delhi)
