Rupee falls to record low of 91.01 against dollar, Govt cites trade gap, delay in India-US trade deal

The rupee fell 23 paise against the greenback to settle at a new all-time low of 91.01 (provisional) on Tuesday, as the Government in the Rajya Sabha attributed the sliding value of domestic currency to widening trade deficit and the ongoing developments related to the India-US trade agreement.

During the session, the local unit lost 36 paise from its previous close against the greenback to hit its lowest-ever level of 91.14, but regained some ground later in the day. Even a weaker greenback and a sharp decline in global crude oil prices could not prevent the slide in the local unit, forex traders said.

The rupee has fallen from 90 a dollar to 91 in the last 10 trading sessions. The unit has slipped 1 per cent against the greenback in the past five sessions alone.

The issue was brought up in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday, and Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said, “During the current financial year, the depreciation of the INR has been

influenced by the increase in trade deficit and likely prospects arising from the ongoing developments in India’s trade agreement with the US, amid relatively weak support from the capital account.”

“The depreciation of currency is likely to enhance export competitiveness, which in turn impacts the economy positively. On the other hand, depreciation may raise the prices of imported goods. However, the overall impact of exchange rate depreciation on domestic prices depends on the extent of the pass-through of international commodity prices to the domestic market,” he said.Citing data, Chaudhary said that this year the rupee has declined 5.1 per cent till December 3.

The rupee fell 4.5 per cent against the US dollar in 2015, 2.6 per cent in 2016, while there was a 6.4 per cent rise in 2017, the data showed.Since 2017, there has been a constant fall in the value of the rupee — 8.5 per cent in 2018, 2.3 per cent in 2019, 2.3 per cent in 2020, 1.7 per cent in 2021, 10.2 per cent in 2022, 0.6 per cent in 2023, and 2.8 per cent in 2024, the data shared by the Union minister showed.

“The value of the INR is market-determined, with no target or specific level or band. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regularly monitors the foreign exchange market and intervenes in situations of excess volatility. Further, the RBI monitors key developments across the globe which may have an impact on USD-rupee exchange rate,” the minister said.

According to forex traders, the rupee might even cross the 92 per dollar-mark this month.At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 90.87 against the greenback and traded in the range of 90.76 to 91.14 before settling at 91.01 (provisional), down 23 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the local unit settled at 90.78 against the US dollar, registering a loss of 29 paise from its previous close.“Rupee made a new lifetime low as dollar buying continued with news that (US President) Donald Trump has not agreed to the new trade proposals from India.

So the deal goes into limbo till a new one is finalised,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

“FPIs will continue to sell while speculators will continue to take USD/INR up in the absence of RBI intervention... 92 looks imminent unless RBI has other ideas or a deal is finalised,” he said, adding that the range for tomorrow is expected at 90.75 to 91.25.

Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth INR1,468.32 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.Also, wholesale price inflation stayed in the negative for the second consecutive month in November at (-) 0.32 per cent, even though there was an uptick in prices of food articles like pulses and vegetables on a month-on-month basis, Government data showed on Monday.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was at (-) 1.21 per cent in October and 2.16 per cent in November last year.Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.08 per cent lower at 98.23.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.78 per cent lower at $59.48 per barrel in futures trade.On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index, Sensex, tanked 533.50 points to settle at 84,679.86, while the Nifty was down 167.20 points to 25,860.10.