Italy’s justice referendum becomes test for Meloni
Italy’s conservative Premier Giorgia Meloni faces a pivotal political test in a two-day referendum on judicial reform that starts Sunday, a vote that has transformed into a broader judgment on her leadership at home and abroad.
Originally presented as a technical overhaul of the justice system, the reform has sharpened political divisions and unified the centre-left opposition, turning the referendum into a symbolic showdown on Meloni’s strength one year ahead of national elections.
Recent polls show the race remains too close to call, with the “No” camp gaining late momentum in a polarised climate where turnout may prove decisive.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and polling expert at YouTrend, said a rejection of the reform would carry significant political weight.
“A possible ‘No’ victory would send a political signal, weakening Meloni’s aura of invincibility, while pushing the centre-left opposition to say that there is already an alternative in the country,” he told The Associated Press.
Meloni raises the stakes. Meloni initially avoided tying her image too closely to the referendum, wary of the danger that a defeat could weaken her domestically and abroad. She currently presides over Italy’s most stable Government in years, after gaining credibility among her European allies as a charismatic leader. A referendum win would further strengthen her tenure at home, alongside her international standing. That’s why, as the vote neared and polls tightened, the Italian premier shifted strategy and fully embraced the “Yes” campaign.
Meloni has sharpened her rhetoric, accusing parts of the judiciary of hindering Government work on migration and security, and warning that failure to pass the reform would strengthen unaccountable judicial “factions” and endanger citizens’ safety. “If the reform doesn’t pass this time, we will probably not have another chance,” she said at a campaign event last week.
“We will find ourselves with even more powerful factions, even more negligent judges, even more surreal sentences, immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being freed and putting your security at risk.”
Her stark warnings have drawn fierce criticism from magistrates and the centre-left, who argue that the reforms would erode judicial independence and undermine constitutional guarantees.
