Betting markets revise West Bengal seat estimates sharply after second phase of polling
Informal, underground betting markets in places such as Phalodi, Delhi and Mumbai have reacted to the just-concluded 2026 Assembly elections and the exit polls, released on April 29-30, with results due May 4, 2026. Phalodi Satta Bazar in Rajasthan is the most watched, but Delhi and Mumbai markets also carry influence.
According to an insider, the underground betting market in Phalodi, which gave lead to Trinamool Congress (TMC) before polling has now revised its estimate of the seats that the BJP may win in West Bengal. Its latest revision gives BJP 150-152 seats and 137-140 seats to the TMC. The markets have also weakened odds for Mamata Banerjee’s Bhawanipur seat.
The general trend in underground betting markets has largely aligned with most exit polls giving an edge and majority to BJP in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry, DMK is being projected to retain in Tamil Nadu, United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala but shows some variation and tighter calls in West Bengal.
West Bengal is the hottest and most volatile betting market. While early projections, pre-or mid-phases favoured TMC slightly (158-161 seats vs BJP 127-130). After the high-turnout final phases and exit polls markets slightly favour the BJP slightly expect a hung Assembly.
Market favour a first-ever BJP Government in West Bengal with a narrow majority but extremely close, a nail-biter finish with hourly fluctuations. The market sentiment matches the split exit polls but is betting money on BJP Poriborton (change). Betting on Tamil Nadu has been stable and less dramatic. Markets consistently favour the ruling DMK+ alliance for a comfortable return, despite some exit poll noise around TVK (Vijay’s party). Bets reflect anti-incumbency not being strong enough for upset.
Bets on Assam have been decisive and consistent across markets favouring the BJP-led NDA.
Markets are hoping for an alternating pattern in Kerala with the Congress-led UDF having an edge over the Left front.
Overall, the mood of the markets post-exit polls seems to place odds in favour of the BJP in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry while DMK holds on to power in Tamil Nadu; UDF flips Kerala. Markets are fluid until May 4 counting. All eyes are fixed on West Bengal and it attracts smart play where bets have flipped toward BJP recently.
“These are often more about sentiment than accuracy, and can swing wildly. Exit polls themselves vary widely in WB, so treat all this as speculative buzz. Ground realities and last-minute factors will decide on counting day”, said an insider in Delhi market.
