In the throes of a climate crisis, the convergence of El Niño, surging global temperatures, and human-induced factors paints a dire picture. With El Niño intensifying impacts worldwide, from disrupted weather patterns to water shortages, urgent collective action is paramount
The European Union’s climate monitor announced on Tuesday that 2023 is globally the warmest year on record, and the average global temperature is 1.48 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature recorded in the second half of the 19th century. The Indian Meteorological Department had previously declared on the eve of the New Year that 2023 was the second warmest year in India, following 2016. Last year, i.e., 2023, missed breaking the 2016 record by 0.07 degrees Celsius.
Climate scientists and researchers express no surprise that unabated emissions of greenhouse gases are the cause for the warming trend reaching new highs. Furthermore, these numbers indicate an acceleration of the planet’s warming. Carlo Buontempo, Director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, stated during the news briefing, “When scientists combine their satellite readings with geological evidence of the climate’s more distant past, 2023 appears to be among the warmest years in at least 100,000 years.”
El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that influence climate conditions worldwide. While La Niña benefits India, El Niño creates warmer winters and drier, hotter summers. While 2022 was a La Niña year, 2023 was an El Niño year. The weather pattern, especially between July and December 2023, was heavily impacted by El Niño conditions, resulting in a rainfall deficit across the country. The impact of El Niño conditions in 2023 will also be felt in 2024, at least in the first quarter of the year. The deficient rainfall has led to nearly half-empty reservoirs across the country, thereby impacting Rabi crops like wheat, potato, etc., and a drop in production is predicted.
El Niño occurs every 2 to 7 years, lasting for nearly 9 to 12 months. El Niño conditions are likely to continue until the first quarter of 2024. Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said, “The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and the ocean.”
During La Niña years, cold sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific and warm temperatures in the west create a strong east-to-west SST gradient, and the wind blows strongly from east to west. In El Niño years, the eastern Pacific is warmer than normal, and the western Pacific tends to be cooler, with a rainfall deficit over Indonesia and Australia. The El Niño pattern weakens the east-to-west SST gradient and further weakens the wind. It enhances warming in the east and cooling in the west, which is critical for the development of El Niño.
Despite El Niño, we experienced heavy monsoons in the northwestern part of the country and the Western Himalayan States that breached infrastructure and disrupted the lives and livelihoods of local communities. National and international tourists also faced the brunt. Raghu Murtugudde, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic science and earth system science at the University of Maryland, explained in one of his columns the cloud bursts and unprecedented rainfall in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Gujarat, and Rajasthan during June 2023.
His analysis revealed that the El Niño pattern was superimposed by global warming, producing a relatively flat east-west SST gradient, resulting in constructive interference and heavy downpour in the region. The professor further adds that there are few examples of this pattern and phenomenon of constructive interference between global warming and El Niño, and hence it is not fully understood.
Researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune have found, in their studies, that an increased level of tiny pollution particles known as sulfate aerosols contributes to intensifying El Niño conditions and further decreasing rainfall. These aerosols result from the increased levels of sulfur dioxide emissions, especially in South Asian countries.
Regarding the issue of depleted reservoir levels, the agencies responsible for water supply to municipalities, towns, and cities face a tightrope walk in managing resources during the summer months. They must navigate conflicts between the requirements for drinking water, crop irrigation, and power production.
The Bengaluru Water Supply and Sewage Board (BWSSB) have already expressed concerns about the upcoming summer and have urged the Cauvery Neeravari Nigam Limited, Water Resources Department Karnataka, to prioritise water requirements for Bengaluru city and reserve it at the KRS and Kabini reservoirs. Currently, both reservoirs have 30 tmcft of water, and BWSSB has requested the reservation of 12 tmcft to maintain the present level of water supply at 1450 MLD.
It is understood that several other agencies across the country have expressed similar concerns to their respective governments.
While the plains in north India are experiencing cold temperatures, states in the Western Himalayan region, such as Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, are facing a deficiency in snowfall and dry weather. The winter rains that were previously experienced are absent this year, adversely affecting crop production. Agriculture in these regions relies on rainfall, and farmers are currently in distress.
Gulmarg, an international tourist destination renowned for its snow-covered landscapes and white-peaked mountains during this time of year, has lost its charm. The hills in the background appear barren, dampening the enthusiasm of tourists. Adventure sports like skiing, typical during this season, are also absent.
Chilling climate is crucial for the production of crops such as wheat, peas, and potatoes, as well as for the flowering and fruiting of apples. Apples significantly contribute to the economy of the farming community, as well as that of the states and Union Territory. This year’s winter temperatures have been nearly 3 degrees Celsius higher than last year, and in the absence of the chilling climate, agricultural and horticultural crops are suffering.
To attain the appropriate chilling climate, apple farmers have been abandoning their farms and relocating to higher altitudes, establishing new farms for nearly two decades. This process incurs environmental and economic costs. The twigs from old plantations are burned, akin to stubble burning by farmers in Punjab and Haryana, leading to a surge in the Air Quality Index-a health hazard for the community due to the inhalation of poisonous gases trapped in the lower atmosphere. When vertical circulation of air is restored, these gases escape into the upper atmosphere, increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent. The more carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, the greater its impact on our lives and livelihoods.
The Himalayas are often referred to as the “water tower,” and all rivers originating there are sustained by the melting of snow.
In El Niño years, there is a deficiency in snowfall, which ultimately depletes the flow of water in streams, tributaries, and rivers. This has the potential to impact life in regions along the foothills of the Himalayas.
The dryness of the climate and the deficiency of rainfall and snow lead to prolonged forest fires in the hill region. As the planet warms, forests are subjected to frequent and destructive fires, creating a vicious cycle: the more the warming, the more the forest fires. Forest fires constitute a double whammy; the destruction of trees in the fire results in a loss of the carbon sequestration potential of the forests, and the burning releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Forest burning also adversely affects flora and fauna, with the young regeneration of many tree species disappearing, leading to the degradation and fragmentation of forests. Damage is inflicted on reptiles, amphibians, as well as the cubs and young ones of large mammals.
Another disturbing trend is observed in the Himalayas, where anthropogenic pressures on Oak forests have led to their degradation and subsequent replacement by pine forests. A study by Uma Shankar Singh of Vanashakti NGO in Nainital forests, published in “The Applied Biology and Chemistry Journal,” reveals that Oak, an important component of hill forest ecosystems with the potential to conserve water, is being replaced by pine forests. This is an irreversible and undesirable change in the ecosystem, and forest managers are held responsible for hastening the process. The author concludes that temperatures are rising rapidly, and rainfall is receding in Nainital, thereby impacting its flora and fauna.
The impact of warming on Earth’s boreal forests, which encircle the northern reaches of the planet just south of the Arctic treeless Tundra, covering areas such as Alaska, Canada, Scandinavia, and Siberia, has been studied by Ronny Rotbarth and others from Wageningen University. As the planet warms, these forests are shrinking. Vast expanses of forests pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and use it to grow roots, trunks, and leaves, enriching the soil with carbon when the trees decay.
Studies using satellite data reveal evidence of tree cover in some pockets of the region north of the tree line, but there are no expansions in other pockets. In the southern, hotter, and drier regions, tree growth has been reduced, and trees have been killed as a result of the planet’s warming. There is thus a net loss of tree cover in these forests. Wildfires and logging account for additional loss in the southern region of boreal forests.
(The writer is retired Principal Chief Conservator of Forests (Head of Forest Force) Karnataka)
