Political observers are not willing to buy the findings of the 15-page report submitted by UP BJP president Bhupendra Chaudhary to the party’s central leadership listing the causes of the disastrous performance in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls.

In contrast to the 15 points cited in the report, the study conducted by an academic research organisation, Centre for Study of Society and Politics (CSSP), has concluded that ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ slogan was the single biggest reason for the consolidation of the SC, OBCs voters against the BJP, as they  were significantly influenced by the opposition campaign that with 400 seats, the BJP would amend the

Constitution and  scrap the reservation in government jobs.

“The BJP pushed this slogan of ‘400 Paar..’. without offering any political logic. The BJP, in brazen indifference towards the sensibilities of the voters, never cared to offer plausible explanations as to what they intend to achieve by winning over 400 Lok Sabha seats. This gap in communication strategy was exploited by the opposition INDIA block to the hilt telling the voters that the BJP would amend the constitution to scrap the reservation for the SC, ST and OBCs,” said director of Kanpur-based CSSP Dr AK Verma.

Verma argued: “It was the ‘400 Paar...’ slogan that actually strengthened the PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) plank floated by Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav in June 2023. Till the commencement of the active election campaign in the last days of March, the PDA was not taken seriously by all stakeholders in the elections’.’

“It was for the first time in the electoral history of Uttar Pradesh that the election campaign narrative set by the opposition block changed the course of elections and decided the results,” said Dr AK Verma.

“During the campaign,  Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered guarantees on myriad issues but for the reason best known to him, he was silent and did not promise the guarantee that the Constitution would not be amended to scrap the reservation,” Dr Verma said, adding: “The BJP campaign also failed to counter the opposition’s charge relating to leak of question papers for competitive exams for recruitment to government jobs like police constable and others.”

CSSP had conducted the study in two parts — January- March and April-June — during the campaign and polling for the Lok Sabha elections.

“Till the end of March, the popularity rating of the PM Narendra Modi was as high as little over 60% and it dropped by 10-20 % during the elections conducted in seven phases from April 19 to June 1,” Dr Verma said, adding: “The rating for the opposition block ranged from 20% to 30%, which increased to 43% by the end of polling.”

CSSP, in its empirical study, found wide divergence in mood and preferences of the electorate during the January- March quarter and April-June when the campaigning and polling took place.

During the first quarter, unemployment and paper leak were not the issues dominating the minds of the voters. These issues gained currency with the shrill campaign that reservation will be scrapped.

The post-poll analysis report was prepared by the state BJP after obtaining feedback from the candidates who lost, and the party organisational leaders. The BJP, soon after the elections, had despatched study teams to districts where it lost the elections.