With caste-based polarisation taking precedence over political issues, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) campaign in poll-bound Vijaypur is fast running into rough political weather.
The Congress candidate, Mukesh Malhotra, a member of the Sahariya tribal community, is concentrating on the 60,000 votes his community holds in the constituency and consolidating his position by wooing Gurjar votes.
The strategy has seen the Congress launch senior party leader Sachin Pilot into the attack. The young Gurjar leader from Rajasthan has already addressed two public meetings in Vijaypur, which has nearly 15,000 Gurjar votes.
Though the constituency does not have a history of caste-based polarisation, political observers feel that the BJP will hold on to its share of Sahariya tribal votes unless there is a new trend of en-masse voting by the Sahariyas in favour of the Congress.
While still remaining guarded, they concede that this time there may be no smooth sailing for BJP candidate Ramnivas Rawat.
A local Congress leader told The Pioneer that most of the electorate in the constituency is not educated and thus, they are not much concerned with Ramnivas Rawat changing party.
BJP prestige is at stake in this by-election as Forest Minister Ramnivas Rawat is in the electoral fray. Rawat belongs to the Gurjar community, and thus Pilot has been drafted into the campaign.
Sensing the situation, the BJP has altered its strategy and is now focusing on patriotism and the Hindu nationalist agenda as the core theme of its campaign. On Thursday, Chief Minister Mohan Yadav raised the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration in the country and said that illegal infiltration would not be tolerated.
State BJP president Vishnudutt Sharma took the opportunity to hammer home the pro-poor welfare agenda, and did not miss the chance to mention Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Seeking to underplay the issues raised by the BJP leaders, the Congress has maintained that the BJP is indulging in divisive politics.
Senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh, Leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly Umang Singhar, PCC Chief Jitu Patwari, and Sachin Pilot have campaigned in the constituency.
On the other hand, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned. Chief Minister Yadav has addressed seven public meetings so far, while State Assembly Speaker Narendra Singh Tomar and State BJP president VD Sharma have been camping in the area for the past three days.
With the campaign entering its final phase for the November 13 bypolls in the constituency, the battle for Vijaypur still remains pretty evenly poised, say political observers who are now forecasting a change in weather for the BJP.