With clear skies, no rain, and absence of snowfall in Himalayas and easterly winds, north and central India including Delhi has been warmer than usual so far in the month of October. The pleasant ‘wintery’ nip in the air is missing. The National Capital Region has been recording above-normal temperatures consistently in the second half of October 2024. According to meteorologists and scientists, Octobers in north and central India are getting warmer and are expected to get worse in the coming years with fewer Western disturbances, unpredictable rains during the monsoon season, and the larger impacts of climate change and changing weather patterns are to blame.

Earlier, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had hinted at the possibility of a severe winter in North India, especially in the northwest and central regions, including Delhi-NCR. This forecast was linked to the potential development of La Nina conditions during October and November.

The IMD officials said the observatory of Safdarjung has measured the lowest temperature of 17.4°C, so far this month. In the remaining three days of this month, the temperature is expected to hover around 20°C and may even breach 21°C, during this period. Safdarjung recorded the lowest minimum of under 15°C for the last four consecutive years in October. The lowest temperature of the last two decades was 12.5°C, recorded on October 29, 2020.

Data for the last decade shows Delhi’s lowest minimum in October was 12.5°C in October 2020 (October 29). It was 14.3°C last year (October 28); 14°C in 2022 (October 25); 14°C in 2021 (October 29) and 16.5°C in 2019 (October 23).In 2018, the lowest was 15°C (25), 16.1°C in 2017 (26), 15°C in 2016 (29 and 30), 15.3°C in 2015 (29) and 15.6°C in 2014 (17).

The lowest ever temperature in October was 9.4 degree Celsius, recorded on October 31, 1937. The average for the month of October 2024 is likely to hang around 21.3 degree celsius, which could be one of the warmest in the last two decades or more. Also, it has been completely dry this month, so far. In the recent past, the years 2007,2011, 2017 and 2018 also remained totally dry and 2024 will increase this tally.

According to the IMD, the day temperature also exceeds the normal reading at this time of the year. "The winter chill is yet to arrive and is not likely to be anytime soon," it said.