The Karhal constituency in Uttar Pradesh's Mainpuri district has transformed into a political battleground with the upcoming by-election turning into a crucial test for both the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Representing the SP is Tej Pratap Yadav, grandson of the late Mulayam Singh Yadav, who is fighting to retain the family's political stronghold. His main rival is Anujesh Yadav, a BJP candidate and brother-in-law to SP MP Dharmendra Yadav, who presents himself as a "rebel" from the influential Yadav family of Saifai.

The Karhal seat was previously held by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, who vacated it after winning the Kannauj seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Akhilesh won Karhal in 2022, defeating BJP's Union Minister SP Singh Baghel. With the seat now vacant, the BJP has strategically fielded Anujesh Yadav to challenge Tej Pratap and make inroads into the SP's Yadav vote base.

"This election is about giving Karhal its share of development. Voters are ready for a double-engine government with Modi at the Centre and Yogi Adityanath in the state," Anujesh said, adding that other communities like the Shakyas, who are second in population only to the Yadavs, are keen to support the BJP for economic growth.

Historically, Karhal has been an SP fortress. Since 1993, the SP has won six of the seven elections held, with the BJP only managing one victory in 2002. In recent years, the SP has maintained its dominance, but the BJP's focus on a Yadav candidate has intensified the contest, raising questions about shifts in the constituency's political alignment.

Local journalist Neeraj Mehre commented, "The BJP hopes to replicate its 2002 success. However, the Yadavs' loyalty to the SP and their historical ties with the Mulayam family make this a formidable challenge."

Akhilesh Yadav and his wife and Mainpuri MP Dimple Yadav, has been at the forefront of Tej Pratap's campaign. Dimple, known for her close ties with voters in the region, has led door-to-door interactions, while senior family members like Shivpal Yadav and Dharmendra Yadav have actively supported her.

Notably, Tej Pratap previously represented Karhal from 2014 to 2019 after winning a by-election following Mulayam Singh Yadav's resignation. Married to Lalu Prasad Yadav's daughter Raj Lakshmi, Tej Pratap also carries the political legacy of the Yadav clan.

With Karhal's electorate of approximately 3.75 lakh voters, the Yadavs comprise the largest share at around 1.3 lakh, followed by Scheduled Castes (60,000), Shakyas (50,000), Thakurs (30,000), and other communities. The BJP's choice of a Yadav candidate is seen as an effort to fracture this vote base, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has fielded a Shakya candidate, potentially dividing the vote further. Additionally, the entry of Chandrashekhar Azad's candidate may siphon off Dalit support, adding complexity to the SP's traditional advantage.

BJP district president Rahul Chaturvedi expressed confidence in Anujesh's local connections and the development track record under the Yogi-Modi administration. "Karhal has benefited from our crime-free governance, and the people want to see more development," he stated.

While the BJP seeks to penetrate this SP bastion, the SP leadership remains optimistic. An SP leader said that disillusionment among farmers and youth with the BJP government strengthens Tej Pratap's chances.

As Karhal approaches the  polling date, the election has become a high-stakes contest of Yadav loyalty, political legacy, and changing caste dynamics.