After its unimpressive performance in the recent Lok Sabha Election when it managed to win just two out of six seats, the ruling MahaYuti is facing an uphill task in Mumbai --  where the BJP and then united Shiv Sena had together put up a spectacular show by collectively 30 out of total 36 seats.

Though the situation is very fluid in the country's commercial capital and there is no clear indicator on the as to which way the wind blowing. It is quite unlikely that the MahaYuti will repeat the performance of the saffron alliance in 2019 when the BJP won 16 seats, while then united Shiv Sena had walked away with 14 seats in the metropolis.

The electoral situation has changed vastly after the vertical split of the Shiv Sena in June 2022, when the Eknath Shinde-led rebel group toppled the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government led by Uddhav and formed its government in alliance with the BJP on June 30, 2022.

The two warring Senas - one led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the other by Uddhav Thackeray - are preparing for another massive showdown in the November 20 Assembly polls. The tussle between the two feuding Sena will have a major bearing on the Assembly poll results in Mumbai.

The tussle should be seen in the backdrop of the fact that the round one involving the Lok Sabha Election, when the Uddhav Sena had captured three out of six seats while its ally Congress had won one seat. On the other hand, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena had managed to win just one seat, while the remaining one seat was bagged by its ally BJP.

Of the total 36 seats, the Uddhav Sena is contesting 22 seats as against 19 seats contested by the united Sena in 2019 when it was a part of the BJP-led NDA. Its ally Congress has fielded candidates in 11 constituencies as against 30 seats it had contested in 2019 seats, while the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is trying its luck in two seats as against six seats it had contested in 2019 polls.

Interestingly, the despite the split in the parent party, the Uddhav Sena has got maximum share in the Opposition MVA     

From the Mahayuti seats, the BJP is contesting 18 seats, leaving 16 seats for the Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction and two for Ajit Pawar-led NCP.  In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP had romped home by winning 16 out of 17 seats it contested in Mumbai.

Like in the Lok Sabha polls, the two warring Senas are slugging it out bitterly in the country's financial capital. The BJP, which rode the "Modi wave" in the 2019 Assembly polls, is not as formidable as it was five years ago - a factor that is bound to boost the chances of the rival MVA candidates.  

What will lead to the division of votes in the 2024 Assembly polls is the fact that the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has fielded 25 candidates in Mumbai.  Though the MNS may not win many seats, it will cut into the traditional vote banks of both the Shiv Senas and to an extent the BJP. 

There will be further division in the distribution of votes because of the presence of the candidates belonging to the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM.

Significantly enough,  a majority of the contests in Mumbai are three-cornered or four-cornered ones and it is a high-stake battle for the two alliances involving six parties - Maha Yuti comprising BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar-headed NCP (SP)

Several bigwigs of Maharashtra politics and gen-next leaders including Aaditya Thackeray, Amit Thackeray, Milind Deora, Rahul Narwekar, Nawab Malik, Ashish Shelar, Sunil Raut, Mangal Prabhat Lodha, Zeeshan Siddique are among the 420 contestants who are in the fray in 36 Assembly constituencies across Mumbai.

Mumbai's three seats - Worli, Mahim and Bandra East - involve members of the Thackeray family.

In Worli, Uddhav's son and former State minister  Aaditya -- who is the sitting MLA, is taking on Murli Deora's son and sitting Rajya Sabha member Milind Deora, who has been fielded by Shiv Sena and  MNS candidate  Sandeep Deshpande.

MNS chief Raj Thackeray has a lot at stake at Mahim, where his son Amit is making an electoral debut. He is locked in a fierce triangular contest with  three-time sitting Shiv Sena MLA Sada Sarvankar and Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Mahesh Sawant. 

In fact, the BJP --which is leading the MahaYuti -- wanted Sarvankar to withdraw in favour of Amit Thackeray in lieu of the unconditional support it received from Raj Thackeray in the Lok Sabha polls.  However,  Sarvankar was in no mood to oblige. Chief minister Eknath Shinde,  who heads the  Shiv Sena, chose not to intervene - much to the chagrin of  Raj Thackeray.

In Bandra West, Aaditya's cousin Varun Sardesai is contesting from Shiv Sena (UBT) and he is taking on NCP's Zeeshan Siddiqui while MNS has fielded former MLA Trupti Sawant. Zeeshan's father Baba Siddique was shot dead last month.  Varun is Aaditya's maternal cousin. He is the son of Rashmi Thackeray's sister..

In a key contest being witnessed in Bandra west, Mumbai BJP President Ashish Shelar is fighting Asif Zakaria of the Congress. Elsewhere in Malad west in north Mumbai,  Shelar's brother Vinod Shelar is taking on sitting MLA and former minister Aslam Shaikh.

In the much-discussed constituency of Dharavi, Mumbai North-Central MP and Mumbai Congress President Prof Varsha Gaikwad's sister Jyoti Gaikwad is locked in a contest against Rajesh Khandare of the Shinde Shiv Sena.

In Chandivali, former minister and Maharashtra Congress working President Naseem Khan is pitted against Dilip Lande of the Shinde Shiv Sena. In the 2019 polls, Lande defeated Khan by a slender margin of 409 votes.

From downtown Colaba in south Mumbai, the BJP has put up the controversial Assem,bly Speaker Rahul Narwekar, who had presided over the disqualification pleas of Shiv Sena and NCP, is up against Heera Devasi of the Congress.

The BJP's moneybag  Mangal Prabhat Lodha is involved in a contest against Shiv Sena (UBT)'s candidate Bhairulal Jain in upmarket Malabar Hill.

Shiv Sena (UBT) Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Raut's brother and sitting MLA Sunil Raut is re-contesting the polls against  Suvarna Karanje of the Eknath Shidne Sena.

In Mumbadevi, the three-time Congress MLA Amin Patil is battling it out against fashion designer Shaina NC, who recently quit BJP to secure a ticket from the Shinde Shiv Sena.

The NCP (Ajit Pawar) has put up  controversial NCP (Ajit Pawar) nominee and former minister Nawab Malik against Samajwadi Party's state chief and sitting MLA Abu Asim Azmi.

On its part, the BJP has objected to Malik's nomination. However, the NCP (SP) has ignored its ally's objection to Malik's candidature.  Malik's daughter Sana Malik is contesting the Anushaktinagar seat against NCP (SP)'s Fahad Ahmed, the husband of actor-activist Swara Bhaskar.

There are in all 420 candidates in the fray for 36 seats.