The Samajwadi Party’s (SP) recent decision to field six candidates for the upcoming by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, without consulting Congress, has cast a shadow on the INDIA alliance’s stability, particularly in the state.
This move highlights the growing friction between SP and Congress, sparking concerns over Congress's diminishing role in the alliance and its potential marginalization in Uttar Pradesh's political landscape.
The timing couldnot be worse for Congress, which has been struggling to regain ground after a disappointing performance in the Haryana elections. Political observers argue that this setback has further weakened Congress’s bargaining power within the INDIA bloc, especially in states dominated by powerful regional parties like SP. The unilateral decision by SP hints at the internal tug-of-war within the alliance and Congress’s shrinking clout in crucial decision-making processes.
Political commentator Manoj Bhadra expressed concern over SP’s announcement. “By declaring candidates without consulting Congress, SP has signaled a shift in its strategy. The Congress-SP alliance, which showed some success in past elections, seems to be unraveling.”
He said that the two parties had previously collaborated effectively, stalling the BJP's advance in UP. However, the latest development shows SP distancing itself from Congress, possibly questioning the party’s relevance in the alliance.
A senior SP leader, speaking anonymously, highlighted Congress's eroding voter base and urged the party to reassess its rigid approach to seat-sharing. “Congress needs to be realistic. Their recent defeat in Haryana shows a clear decline. If they continue with their stubborn approach, they risk being left out of the political game in UP.” Reports indicate that Congress had initially sought to contest five seats in the by-elections—seats currently held by the BJP. However, SP’s move to go ahead without their input has strained relations. “Despite Congress requesting a share of five seats, SP’s independent decisions reflect Congress’s diminishing influence in Uttar Pradesh,” a senior Congress leader admitted.
Congress’s UP in-charge, Avinash Pandey, acknowledged that SP had sidelined the party during the candidate selection process but remained hopeful of an eventual agreement. “We still believe that an alliance is possible. Congress and SP can, and should, contest these by-elections together,” he said, trying to downplay the tension.
Ajay Rai, President of UP Congress, echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing that their “Samvidhan Bachao” campaign would proceed in all 10 constituencies, showing Congress’s intent to remain active despite the uncertainty. "I am optimistic we can still join forces with SP for these by-elections," Rai remarked.
Yet, SP’s national spokesperson, Amik Jamei, took a more critical stance, attributing Congress’s struggles to internal discord and strategic missteps. "If Congress had involved Akhilesh Yadav in key campaign efforts, they might have fared better in recent elections. Congress needs to rethink its approach," Jamei argued, stressing the importance of cooperation in challenging the BJP.
While tensions persist, SP spokesperson Manoj Kumar Yadav tried to smooth over the situation, reaffirming SP's focus on defeating the BJP, regardless of internal alliance issues. "Our target remains defeating the BJP, and we’ve done it before. Congress needs to reflect on its position and work with us, not against us."
Rajendra Chaudhary, another SP spokesperson, indicated that decisions regarding seat-sharing would ultimately be made by Akhilesh Yadav himself, further suggesting that Congress’s role in these negotiations is far from secure.
A senior Congress leader acknowledged the delicate situation, stating, “This shouldn’t become a matter of prestige. We should accept a couple of seats and contest alongside SP. We must face reality: our current strength may not be enough to match the BJP’s formidable machinery."
Among SP’s candidates is Tej Pratap Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son-in-law, who will contest the Karhal seat vacated by Akhilesh Yadav following his election to Parliament. Other notable candidates include Naseem Solanki (Sisamau), Mustafa Siddiqui (Phulpur), Ajit Prasad (Milkipur), Shobhavati Verma (Katehri), and Dr. Jyoti Bind (Manjhanpur), all boasting solid political credentials.
The upcoming by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, while regional in nature, carry national implications. They will serve as a litmus test for the INDIA alliance, formed to counter BJP's dominance.
The alliance, including Congress, SP, and other regional players, is already feeling the strain of internal divisions and seat-sharing conflicts. Whether it can hold together against the BJP’s formidable electoral machine will be clearer once these crucial by-election results are in. The outcome may well shape the future dynamics of opposition politics heading into the 2024 general elections.
