There is a precarious balance between military power and democratic governance, with implications resonating across continents

Military coups, says Edward Luttwak in his Practical Handbook Coup d’Etat, can be immediately rewarding but the penalty of failure “is far greater than having to eat out of mess tin” he warns. After an avalanche of coups in Latin America, South East Asia and South Asia, it is resurgent in the African continent with a focus on the French Sahel. On 22nd February Guinea’s military leader dissolved the government while retaining charge. In South Asia, the Pakistan Army has endured calling the shots in a new hybrid rule which was being played out clumsily recently.

In South East Asia, the Thai military has donned Bond Street suits, created political parties and made a pact with the monarchy as joint de facto rulers. Monarchy and the Army were bonded in Nepal but the alliance was broken by the Maoist civil war two decades ago. In Myanmar, Generals have fumbled badly and made a mess of the country fighting a losing civil war. Lessons emerging from Pakistan, Myanmar and Thailand on diminishing longevity of coups and military rule are still a challenge to democratic institutions and traditions as we witness in the post-colonial Sahel.

In less than three years (2020 to 2023) six countries have suffered eight coups predominantly in former French colonies in Africa – Gabon (2023) Niger (2023) Burkina Faso (2022) Chad (2021), Mali (2021 ) Guinea (2021) and Sudan (2021). French neo-colonial influence in Africa has finally dissipated. The French military (Foreign Legion) combined with their corporate interests anchored on local elites ensured France became the primary security provider in what is called Francofrique. Three of these countries – Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso – after military coups ordered the French to quit their military stations issuing a deadline. In the case of Niger, it was 1 December 2022 when the last French military aircraft evacuated its garrison. Paris announced it would close its diplomatic mission in Niger for an indefinite period though France would continue to be involved in the Sahel – the vast expanse south of the Sahara desert. 

The French exodus was triggered by corruption, election fraud, dynasticism and a lack of development and economic progress. 1500 French troops were stationed in Niger to train its troops to meet the growing challenge of terrorism posed by Jihadists, Al Qaeda and Islamic State. Similarly, the Junta in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso have also forced French troops out of the country creating a void in military capacity in counter terrorism. In Burkina Faso and Mali, UN Peace Keepers were also deployed. On the withdrawal of French troops, military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed a mutual defence pact. It aims to “establish architecture of collective defence and mutual assistance for our people”, the first of its kind in Africa.

The Jihadi insurgency in North Mali in 2012, spread to Niger and Burkina Faso in 2015. The three Junta-led countries are the first to establish a defence arrangement which is military and economic wherein an attack on any one country will invoke a clause of collective defence. The pullout of French troops from these countries was replaced by Russia and its Wagner group. In these countries, anti-West sentiment is strong with local people praising Russia. US Central Command has more than over-the-horizon capability in these states. It has located military drones in West Africa in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Benin. Along with Togo, these countries are also racked by the Jihadi insurgency that has a stronghold in the Sahel. US and France have carried out discreet( deniable) operations but that capability will now diminish following French troops leaving Sahel.

The Sahel group that expelled French troops will lose out on US, EU and French aid that Russia will be unable to provide and sustain.

Gabon was the last country to face a coup in 2023. It is an oil-producing country that also had French troops. It was the eighth coup in Gabon since 2020. President Ali Bongo took over from his father in 2009 who had ruled the country since 1967. Bongo’s exit from power was another blow for France. In Gabon, election fraud had become a regular feature. A US report in January 2024 said that President Bongo had secretly provided Chinese President Xi Jinping with a military base on the Atlantic Ocean coast. That’s the reason China expressed concern in the UN about the safety of President Bongo. US Deputy NSA, Jon Finer is working the wheel to see if the military base agreement with China can be rescinded.

After the latest election in Pakistan, military wizards in that country are saying that the Army has lost its magic, given that its ‘fixed match’ over former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail has gone awry. Its leader was in jail and the party was deprived of the election symbol, still, PTI independent candidates became the single largest group in Parliament overtaking PMLN. PTI candidates have proved to be the most popular party though the Pakistan Army remains the most trusted institution among high-octane corruption-infected political leaders. Precisely the same is the story in Sahel’s West African countries under military rule. French troop’s expulsion from the Sahel was resisted by Paris like India is stubbornly defending its military presence in Maldives or earlier in Sri Lanka- in both cases, Presidents Muizze and Premadasa had issued deadlines.

(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and a founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. Views are personal)