Elections to take place in Jammu and Kashmir after 10 years; first time after abrogation of Article 370

For the first time in a decade, elections are set to be held in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. After a long wait the elections have been announced for Jammu and Kashmir; the first since 2014, will take place in three phases on September 18, September 25, and October 1, with the results set to be declared on October 4. The region has been under President’s Rule since 2018. This election marks significant progress in meeting the Supreme Court’s directive that democracy be reinstated in Jammu and the Kashmir Valley by September 30. Last month in Srinagar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had confirmed the upcoming election. This is particularly significant as it follows the bifurcation of the erstwhile state into two separate union territories — Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh – in August 2019, when Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which provided special status to the region, was abrogated by the Indian Government. The last elections in Jammu and Kashmir were held in 2014, before the abrogation of Article 370 and the dissolution of the state's legislative assembly in 2018.  Since the 2019 political reorganization, Jammu and Kashmir has been under central administration. The impending elections will not only address the demand for local governance but will also test the popularity of the government's policies and decision in the region. 

With new electoral boundaries drawn post-delimitation, the political map of Jammu and Kashmir has changed. This could impact electoral outcomes, shifting the balance of power between regional parties like the National Conference (NC) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP), and national parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These elections could set the stage for fresh political alliances and realignments, potentially altering the political dynamics between the Kashmir and Jammu regions. The region’s security situation will play a major role in the lead-up to and during the elections. The success of the elections will depend on maintaining peace and ensuring free and fair polling. Indeed, it would be quite a challenge to have peaceful elections, given the recent terrorist attacks in Jammu. Both domestic and international observers will be watching closely to assess the level of participation, especially in the Kashmir Valley. A high voter turnout could bolster the Indian government’s stance that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and that democratic processes are functioning. On the other hand, a low turnout, especially in the valley, could suggest a disconnect between the people and the political establishment, complicating efforts to resolve tensions in the region. Elections are likely to impact the region’s economy in a positive way. The new government will need to address unemployment, revive the tourism sector, and bring much-needed investments.  A successful election could restore a sense of democratic normalcy but the task is daunting. A successful election, no matter who wins, will surely align J&K with the country’s mainstream political landscape.